I wasn't able to write my blog yesterday, so I will have to do a quick recap of the events that preceded today's time trial. Yesterday's stage was won by the breakaway. The final climb was the stage for all the in-fighting in the break, and Rui Costa of Movistar was the rider to capitalise on the attacks and ride clear. He built an advantage over the rest of the breakaway on the final stretch of the category 2 climb, and was able to ride away to the finish on the downhill. It was a well-timed attack that gave him the gap over the rest of the, and the gap he held at the top of the climb - small though it was - was always going to be maintained due to the long downhill ride to the finish.
When the peloton hit the final climb, the accelerations started to come from the main contenders. Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger attacked mutliple times to try and put some distance between themselves and Froome, but the Sky rider was able to match their challenges. Laurens ten Dam, however, was unable to keep the pace and was dropped on the run up to the summit of the final climb. At the end of the day, ten Dam had lost his fifth place overall to Nairo Quintana.
The attacking ride from Contador (and his ride today - see below) showed that he is finding some strength in the latter part of this race, and could be a major threat to Chris Froome's lead on the last three (incredibly tough) mountain stages. Kreuziger will be with him all the way, and Froome is going to have to rely on the support of Richie Porte if he wants to endure the attacks that are bound to come.
Stage 17: Embrun - Chorges
The second individual time trial of this year's Tour was about the same length as the first one, but the similarities ended there. While the route for the first time trial was pan flat, today's course took the riders over two category two climbs. The roads were narrow and treacherous, and a shower of rain in the middle part of the race made the descents even more tricky. The course suited the climbers more than it suited the pure time trialists and, when the last few riders left the starting block, the difference in pace between the front end of the race and those behind was clear to see.
It was Alejandro Valverde who first lit up the race at the top end of the field. He blitzed up the two climbs and down to the finish, setting the standard for the contenders in the general classification. His ride today put on display the fact that he would still be a contender for the yellow jersey if it was not for his poor luck on Friday last week. A broken tyre effectively knocked him out of the race and the dynamics of the race would be so much different if not for his misfortune. Such is the Tour.
Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha has had a seemingly quiet Tour, but has been gaining strength as the race goes on. He took to the course a little while after Valverde and rode a superb time trial. At each intermediate time check he set the new standard, and he finished 20 seconds ahead of Valverde's time. Rodiguez has stated that he wants to finish on the podium in Paris - it will be a very tough task as he has to gain a lot of time on the riders ahead of him, but strong performances like today's show that he may well have the legs to challenge the likes of Kreuziger and Quintana for a top 3 position.
Rodriguez's time in the hotseat was limited however. Contador took to the course with a vengeance, attacking the climbs and descending as though he had no regard for his safety. His objectives were clear - he was there to put time into the yellow jersey of Chris Froome, and claw his way back into contention before the massive stage tomorrow. His attacking ride apperead to be paying off when Bauke Mollema took to the course and immediately started to fall behind. The Dutch rider struggled on the course today, and ended up losing almost two minutes to Contador, Froome and Kreuziger. He had dropped to fourth in the overall standings at the end of the stage.
Froome took to the course last, and rode though the first time check just 2 seconds behind Contador's time. Contador's aggressive descending appeared to have worked when Froome reached the second check point almost 20 seconds behind Contador. It looked, for a while, like Contador was going to claim back around 30 to 45 seconds on Froome at the end of the day. Again, Froome showed why he is the fastest rider in the peloton, and why he is the man to beat this year. He rode himself back into contention on the second climb, summiting just 11 seconds behind Contador's time. However, the 11 second gap included a bike change just before the summit, and Froome would probably have been ahead of Contador at the top if not for the change. Froome's descent to the finish was rapid, and despite a squall that threatened to impact his time, he was able to ride to the finish faster than anyone else. Froome won the stage, and put a further 9 seconds between himself and Contador. Kreuziger moved up into third at the end of the day, but now lies almost 5 minutes behind Froome.
A special mention of Quintana's ride needs to be made. Quintana finished ahead of Michal Kwiatkowski and managed to gain more time in the white jersey classification. It is almost certain that he will ride into Paris with the white jersey, but the real question is if he will manage to claim a podium spot whilst doing so. I think the young rider from Colombia could do it. He will have the time and space in the Alps to attack Kreuziger and Mollema. They will likely be unable to respond, as they haven't mustered a response thus far.
Alpe d'Huez
This is the stage I've been waiting for! My absolute favourite climb in the Tour de France, the iconic Alpe d'Huez, gets summited twice in one day. The riders will have to climb through its legendary 21 switchbacks on two occasions, battling the gradient and length of this hors categorie giant. What makes this mountain so special is that it is a place where legends are made. The Galibier, the Tourmalet and the Izoard are all climbs that stand out in the history of the Tour, but it is the Alpe that seemingly defines a rider's greatness.
The stage tomorrow is grueling. An ascent of the Alpe d'Huez just once is a massive task, but ascending it twice - the second time being to the finish line - is just brutal. Only the strongest riders will be left at the end of tomorrow's stage and the yellow jersey may well be well-and-truly decided. Few people can argue against Chris Froome's dominance this year, but as I've said it only takes one mistake, one bad day in the saddle to lose the yellow jersey. Froome holds a lead of 4 minutes and 34 seconds over Alberto Contador, the very man I expect to be most aggressive on the climb up the Alpe.
Contador has said that he doesn't care if he finishes 2nd or 10th in the general classification, his goal is to win the Tour. I take this to mean that Contador is going to be looking for every opportunity to attack, even if doing so might push him beyond his limits. Contador will lay everything on the line in the next few days, and the results will either be fruitful or absolutely disastrous. Contador is looking for a lot of time, and his attacks will have to come early if he wants to gain that time back. I don't think he will attack on the first ascent of the Alpe d'Huez, as it may be too much to do alone from there on out. I expect that Saxo-Tinkoff will come to the front with Movistar and try to isolate Froome as they did on the second day in the Pyrenees. If they are able to do so, or perhaps even if they aren't they very next climb might provide the platform for the attack.
The category 2 Col de Sarenne and a long descent separate the two climbs of the Alpe d'Huez. The col is a relatively short climb with a sharp gradient, and it could well be the place for Contador or Quintana to jump clear of the yellow jersey group. The time that Contador needs means he will have to gamble on a fairly long run to the finish, and hope he has the legs to sustain the effort. Contador descends really well, and could well use the descent down to the start of the second climb of the Alpe d'Huez to set up a solo attempt at the climb - ahead of Froome.
Rodriguez and Quintana mat well be looking to do something similar, although I expect Quintana to be a little bit more reticent after his early attack on the Mont Ventoux. He may wait a bit longer to go on the offensive and try to pick up a stage win.
But what about Froome? The big question in this Tour is whether or not Froome can be beaten. He has been isolated before, he has fallen prey to a nasty split in the peloton, but at every stage he has proven himself to be the strongest rider in the peloton. Will he crack in the last part of the race? I doubt it, I really do. But I have this nagging voice in my head that tells me the best of Contador is yet to come, and Froome may well find himself in a spot of bother at some stage between now and Paris. I don't think he will be dislodged from the top spot easily, but on a stage like tomorrow's riders could lose very large chunks of time.
Knowing this, Froome could well put this Tour to rest. If he is able to attack the peloton and ride clear like he did on the Mont Ventoux, it is likely to be the final straw. If he puts more time between himself and his contenders, their morale will probably shatter and the race will be won. I could already see the disappointment in Contador's face today as Froome crossed the line ahead of him, taking the yellow jersey further out of reach. A victory for Froome tomorrow, even if not a stage victory but one of time, could be too large a psychological hurdle to overcome.
So, I've said a lot without saying much at all. Who will attack? I don't know, but those riders sitting in places 2 to 5 will have to if they want to retain any hope of winning the Tour. Who will wear yellow after tomorrow? It seems naive to say anyone but Chris Froome, but it wouldn't be uncharacteristic of the Tour to serve up a surprise. What about the King of the Mountains? It's a bit of a toss-up between Froome and Quintana, and will basically come down to the final ascent of the Alpe d'Huez. Rolland may try to get himself into the breakaway to secure some points, but I don't foresee a breakaway lasting to the finish if the riders start attacking each other. I'm going to go ahead and say Froome will still be the leader in this classification tomorrow night.
It was Alejandro Valverde who first lit up the race at the top end of the field. He blitzed up the two climbs and down to the finish, setting the standard for the contenders in the general classification. His ride today put on display the fact that he would still be a contender for the yellow jersey if it was not for his poor luck on Friday last week. A broken tyre effectively knocked him out of the race and the dynamics of the race would be so much different if not for his misfortune. Such is the Tour.
Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha has had a seemingly quiet Tour, but has been gaining strength as the race goes on. He took to the course a little while after Valverde and rode a superb time trial. At each intermediate time check he set the new standard, and he finished 20 seconds ahead of Valverde's time. Rodiguez has stated that he wants to finish on the podium in Paris - it will be a very tough task as he has to gain a lot of time on the riders ahead of him, but strong performances like today's show that he may well have the legs to challenge the likes of Kreuziger and Quintana for a top 3 position.
Rodriguez's time in the hotseat was limited however. Contador took to the course with a vengeance, attacking the climbs and descending as though he had no regard for his safety. His objectives were clear - he was there to put time into the yellow jersey of Chris Froome, and claw his way back into contention before the massive stage tomorrow. His attacking ride apperead to be paying off when Bauke Mollema took to the course and immediately started to fall behind. The Dutch rider struggled on the course today, and ended up losing almost two minutes to Contador, Froome and Kreuziger. He had dropped to fourth in the overall standings at the end of the stage.
Froome took to the course last, and rode though the first time check just 2 seconds behind Contador's time. Contador's aggressive descending appeared to have worked when Froome reached the second check point almost 20 seconds behind Contador. It looked, for a while, like Contador was going to claim back around 30 to 45 seconds on Froome at the end of the day. Again, Froome showed why he is the fastest rider in the peloton, and why he is the man to beat this year. He rode himself back into contention on the second climb, summiting just 11 seconds behind Contador's time. However, the 11 second gap included a bike change just before the summit, and Froome would probably have been ahead of Contador at the top if not for the change. Froome's descent to the finish was rapid, and despite a squall that threatened to impact his time, he was able to ride to the finish faster than anyone else. Froome won the stage, and put a further 9 seconds between himself and Contador. Kreuziger moved up into third at the end of the day, but now lies almost 5 minutes behind Froome.
A special mention of Quintana's ride needs to be made. Quintana finished ahead of Michal Kwiatkowski and managed to gain more time in the white jersey classification. It is almost certain that he will ride into Paris with the white jersey, but the real question is if he will manage to claim a podium spot whilst doing so. I think the young rider from Colombia could do it. He will have the time and space in the Alps to attack Kreuziger and Mollema. They will likely be unable to respond, as they haven't mustered a response thus far.
Alpe d'Huez
This is the stage I've been waiting for! My absolute favourite climb in the Tour de France, the iconic Alpe d'Huez, gets summited twice in one day. The riders will have to climb through its legendary 21 switchbacks on two occasions, battling the gradient and length of this hors categorie giant. What makes this mountain so special is that it is a place where legends are made. The Galibier, the Tourmalet and the Izoard are all climbs that stand out in the history of the Tour, but it is the Alpe that seemingly defines a rider's greatness.
The stage tomorrow is grueling. An ascent of the Alpe d'Huez just once is a massive task, but ascending it twice - the second time being to the finish line - is just brutal. Only the strongest riders will be left at the end of tomorrow's stage and the yellow jersey may well be well-and-truly decided. Few people can argue against Chris Froome's dominance this year, but as I've said it only takes one mistake, one bad day in the saddle to lose the yellow jersey. Froome holds a lead of 4 minutes and 34 seconds over Alberto Contador, the very man I expect to be most aggressive on the climb up the Alpe.
Contador has said that he doesn't care if he finishes 2nd or 10th in the general classification, his goal is to win the Tour. I take this to mean that Contador is going to be looking for every opportunity to attack, even if doing so might push him beyond his limits. Contador will lay everything on the line in the next few days, and the results will either be fruitful or absolutely disastrous. Contador is looking for a lot of time, and his attacks will have to come early if he wants to gain that time back. I don't think he will attack on the first ascent of the Alpe d'Huez, as it may be too much to do alone from there on out. I expect that Saxo-Tinkoff will come to the front with Movistar and try to isolate Froome as they did on the second day in the Pyrenees. If they are able to do so, or perhaps even if they aren't they very next climb might provide the platform for the attack.
The category 2 Col de Sarenne and a long descent separate the two climbs of the Alpe d'Huez. The col is a relatively short climb with a sharp gradient, and it could well be the place for Contador or Quintana to jump clear of the yellow jersey group. The time that Contador needs means he will have to gamble on a fairly long run to the finish, and hope he has the legs to sustain the effort. Contador descends really well, and could well use the descent down to the start of the second climb of the Alpe d'Huez to set up a solo attempt at the climb - ahead of Froome.
Rodriguez and Quintana mat well be looking to do something similar, although I expect Quintana to be a little bit more reticent after his early attack on the Mont Ventoux. He may wait a bit longer to go on the offensive and try to pick up a stage win.
But what about Froome? The big question in this Tour is whether or not Froome can be beaten. He has been isolated before, he has fallen prey to a nasty split in the peloton, but at every stage he has proven himself to be the strongest rider in the peloton. Will he crack in the last part of the race? I doubt it, I really do. But I have this nagging voice in my head that tells me the best of Contador is yet to come, and Froome may well find himself in a spot of bother at some stage between now and Paris. I don't think he will be dislodged from the top spot easily, but on a stage like tomorrow's riders could lose very large chunks of time.
Knowing this, Froome could well put this Tour to rest. If he is able to attack the peloton and ride clear like he did on the Mont Ventoux, it is likely to be the final straw. If he puts more time between himself and his contenders, their morale will probably shatter and the race will be won. I could already see the disappointment in Contador's face today as Froome crossed the line ahead of him, taking the yellow jersey further out of reach. A victory for Froome tomorrow, even if not a stage victory but one of time, could be too large a psychological hurdle to overcome.
So, I've said a lot without saying much at all. Who will attack? I don't know, but those riders sitting in places 2 to 5 will have to if they want to retain any hope of winning the Tour. Who will wear yellow after tomorrow? It seems naive to say anyone but Chris Froome, but it wouldn't be uncharacteristic of the Tour to serve up a surprise. What about the King of the Mountains? It's a bit of a toss-up between Froome and Quintana, and will basically come down to the final ascent of the Alpe d'Huez. Rolland may try to get himself into the breakaway to secure some points, but I don't foresee a breakaway lasting to the finish if the riders start attacking each other. I'm going to go ahead and say Froome will still be the leader in this classification tomorrow night.
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