A Rest Day Recap

Rest Day: Saint-Nazaire

The Pyrenees are done. The first foray into the mountains is over, and the riders have been given a chance to rest their legs. Over the course of the last 9 days, the race has started to take shape and the contenders have come to the fore. The rest day provides the perfect opportunity to reflect on the race that has been, and speculate on what it may yet hold in store. The race continues tomorrow, but the form it takes is vastly different from that with which it started. What follows is my synopsis of the race by classification:

Green Jersey

Of all the classifications, the green jersey is the one that is closest to being decided. The three hilly days in the race so far have allowed Peter Sagan to open up a points lead of 93 points over the rider in second place, Andre Greipel. Cavendish is further behind in 3rd place, and Kittel has dropped down to 7th in the standings. Overcoming Sagan's lead at this stage is a seemingly impossible task. Greipel is more than two flat-stage victories off the points lead of Sagan; he would need to win two stages in which Sagan didn't score any points to diminish Sagan's lead to 3 points. Greipel is certainly capable of winning two stages, but it would be naive to think that Sagan wouldn't claim points on those stages. The most Greipel can do is lower the gap by small increments - and it appears that there won't be enough time to eat away at Sagan's advantage.

If Greipel's chances of challenging for the green jersey are slim, then it appears that Cavendish's chances might be slimmer still. Greipel has been the most consistent sprinter at the intermediate sprint points, and in a race that requires the riders to accumulate points at every opportunity this could be the difference between winning the jersey or not. Cavendish may be the best finisher in the bunch, but if he finds himself losing ground at the intermediate sprints, then no number of stage victories will help his cause. If I'm being generous I could say that the competition for the geen jersey has been reduced to a three-horse race featuring Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan, but in reality it looks as if this race has been decided already and Sagan's grip on the green jersey is unlikely to slip.

Polka-dot Jersey

In the King of the Mountains classification, the race is somewhat more open. There are enough points on offer in the mountains ahead to allow a rider without any points at the moment to come into contention for the polka-dot jersey. That, of course, is unlikely to happen and as it stands, Pierre Rolland is the favourite to win the jersey. His contenders in the standings haven't really shown themselves, and those who are closest to him on points are only there because they are chasing the yellow jersey. Froome is second in the classification, but won't be aiming to take points as his goal is only to put time between him and his opponents. In doing that he will undoubtedly earn himself a few more points in the classification, but they will be incidental and not his main focus. 

Richie Porte is third in the race for the polka-dot jersey and still could pose a threat to Rolland. However, Porte will be riding in support of Froome and certainly won't be allowed to go in search of points. He could be sent up the road as a strategy from Froome, but I have a hard time seeing that happen as it would mean leaving Froome's side and not pacing him up the climbs. It seems unreasonable to think of Porte as a contender for the polka-dot jersey, but stranger things have happened in the Tour. Nairo Quintana is another rider in contention for the polka-dot jersey but, like Porte, he will be riding in support of his team leader and most likely won't have the freedom to go in search of points.

Thomas de Gendt and Simon Clarke are further down in the standings, but they might very well pose the biggest threat to Rolland. They've shown fairly good form in the mountains and are agressive riders who can survive on their own in the tough stages. De Gendt has said that he's eyeing the double ascent of the Alpe d'Huez for a possible stage victory and if he does go for it he could be in contention for the polka-dot jersey. Clarke clearly wants to accumulate points in this classification as he has shown on a few occasions and could well do so. Whether or not he can outclimb Rolland is another question, one that can only be answered by a straight battle to the summit. Romain Bardet could be a bit of a surprise entrant to the race for this jersey. I wouldn't be surprised if the young French rider looks to get aggressive in the mountain stages and assault the lead of his compatriot.

White Jersey

The race for the white jersey has essentially been reduced to a battle between 4 young riders: Quintana, Kwiatkowski, Bardet, and Talansky. These riders are placed highly in the overall standings, and could all conceivably be the wearer of the white jersey into Paris. Thibaut Pino is 5th in this classification, but at nearly half an hour behind Quintana, he is unlikely to challenge for the jersey.

This Tour has announced the presence of Nairo Quintana as a serious contender for the future. His attack on stage 8 was reminiscent of a young Alberto Contador ascending the Plateau-de-Beille in 2007. Just as Contador's ride in 2007 announced his presence as a future champion cyclist, the ride from Quintana marked his ascension to the top ranks of competitive cycling. Quintana's strength in the mountains makes him a difficult rider to overcome in this classification, but Michal Kwiatkowski (his closest competitor), has shown that he could very well be up to the challenge.

Although Kwiatkowski lost time to Quintana on stage 8, he showed his strength the very next day by finishing third on the stage and with the group containing the contenders for the yellow jersey. Kwiatkowski has been a strong rider for his team leader, Cavendish, but now that the mountains have rolled around his role has shifted to looking for possible stage victories, and perhaps even a top 10 finish. For a team that is not regarded as having a contender for the general classification, Quickstep must be delighted at the strength that Kwiatkowski is showing.

Bardet and Talansky are further behind Quintana and will probably end up lower down in the standings, but Quintana's work for Valverde could count against him and aggressive riding from either of these two young riders could be richly rewarded should Quintana crack.

Yellow Jersey

Team Sky's dominance on stage 8 seemed to have marked the start of what would be two weeks of utter dominance in the Tour. Froome was launched into the yellow jersey by his teammate, Porte, and the race appeared to be firmly in his grasp. However, any thought that Sky would ride away with the Tour this year was soon shattered as yesterday's trip through the mountains announced the presence of Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff as serious contenders for control of the race. Valverde's team subjected Sky to some of their treatment, and reminded the peloton that the Tour cannot be won with only one strong performance.

Froome met the challenge, and still holds a lead of 1 minute and 25 seconds over Valverde, but the race for the yellow jersey is far from over. The weakness shown by Sky on yesterday's course will no doubt open the floodgates for attacks in the mountains later in the Tour. Although Froome was able to meet the challenge on his own yesterday, he will be hard pressed to do so repeatedly in the very tough passage through the Alps. He will definitely need the support of his team, and Richie Porte's role in defending Froome's yellow jersey will be vital.

Similarly Quintana will have a major role to play in trying to get Valverde into the yellow jersey. Quintana's attacks on the yellow jersey will have to be relentless, and Valverde will have to choose his moment to attack wisely if he wants to win this Tour. Movistar will have to coordinate their moves well, and a flurry of attacks from Quintana could set Valverde up to ride clear of Froome and into yellow.

In a rather unsung effort, the teammates from team Belkin, Bauke Mollema and Laurens ten Dam, have ridden themselves into 3rd and 4th in the overall standings respectively. They have been working very well together and their teamwork has paid dividends. Riding in mutual support of each other, they have proven to be very difficult to crack. However, if either of them wants to find himself in yellow in Paris they'll have to do some attacking of their own. By using the work of Movistar or Saxo-Tinkoff as a platform to launch from, they could upset the hopes of the other yellow jersey contenders. It's difficult to pick between the two riders, as they've both shown solid form in the mountains, but a joint attack wouldn't be too surprising.

Another team duo that is a major threat to the yellow jersey lead of Chris Froome is that of Roman Kreuziger and Alberto Contador. Although Contador is almost two minutes in arrears, his aggressive style of riding and his strength in the mountains means he is definitely still in contention for the maillot jaune. Having a strong rider like Roman Kreuziger in support (or in the wings to take over the team leadership) will only help Saxo-Tinkoff's cause.

Another chance for the sprinters

The race moves away from the Pyrenees tomorrow on a flat stage that will give the riders a chance to warm back up to the race pace. Chris Froome's yellow jersey and the polka-dot jersey of Pierre Rolland won't be under threat as there are no mountains on which to launch an assault. It is another stage for the sprinters to gain points in the green jersey classification.

It's a stage that is almost certain to come down to a sprint finish, and the winner of the stage will likely be the sprinter who managed his effort best in the mountains. Greipel and Cavendish will be desperate to take a win tomorrow, as a loss to Sagan will surely be the final nail in the coffin of their chances. As they are both quite reliant on a good lead out, I expect that the final few kilometres will be categorised by some intense, high-speed jostling for position. Overall contenders will have to be wary of crashes, but barring something drastic happening, the riders who led the classifications after yesterday's stage will lead after tomorrow's stage.