A Tough Transition

Stage 7: Montpellier - Albi

A last chance for the sprinters to claim points before going into the high mountains of the Pyrenees presented itself to the riders on today's stage. It was also a last chance for Peter Sagan to claim his first stage win of this year's tour before having to resign himself to the autobus for the passage through the mountains. It was clear from the outset that Sagan was desperate for a stage win, and the work of his team - Cannondale - on the front of the peloton left no doubt that he was targeting the victory. It was an impressive team performance that ultimately gave Sagan the stage win, and placed him in a commanding lead in the green jersey classification.

Team Cannondale hammered the first nail into the coffin of Sagan's competitors when the peloton reached the hardest climb of the day, the Col de la Croix de Mounis, with just over 100 kilometres to go to the finish. At the base of the climb, Cannondale moved to the front of the peloton and set a pace that would see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel drop from the peloton. The response from their teams was immediate, as they sent riders back to try to pace them back into the peloton. However, by the time the autobus reached the summit they were over 2 minutes behind the peloton, and despite their best efforts the gap would be maintained until the finish.

With none of his main contenders present, Sagan was easily able to claim maximum points at the intermediate sprint point. Shortly after passing through the sprint point, Cannondale was forced to come to the front once more, when Jan Bakelants attacked and brought Cyril Gautier and Juan Jose Oroz with him. It was a breakaway that would fight the peloton for nearly 50 kilometres, holding a lead that seemed to oscillate around the 30 second mark. They were caught with just 3 kilometres to go, and team Cannondale launched Sagan into the final sprint. John Degenkolb was Sagan's main competitor, but he launched his attack too early and Sagan was able to jump out of his slipstream to take the victory. The win meant Sagan claimed maximum points on the day, and is now in a seemingly unassailable lead in the green jersey classification - almost 100 points clear of Andre Greipel.

It was a good day for the french rider, Blel Kadri. Riding to his hometown in Albi must have provided him with some inspiration as he rode in a two-man breakaway with Jens Voigt and claimed enough points in the King of the Mountains classification to earn himself the polka-dot jersey at the end of the day. The response from Pierre Rolland came too late and was defended by Kadri's teammate at the top of the Col de la Croix de Mounis. Kadri moved up from third in this classification to claim a one-point lead over Rolland at the end of the day.

The yellow jersey was successfully defended by Daryl Impey today, although there were times when the virtual lead had passed to Jan Bakelants. Bakelant's breakaway needed to finish 34 seconds clear of the peloton to give him back the yellow jersey, but it seemed an impossibility with Cannondale on the front of the peloton. The breakaway's lead was finally disintegrated when Orica Greenedge moved up to the front to help with the chase, keeping Impey in yellow.

A first foray into the mountains

The Pyrenees launch the Tour into the mountainous part of the race with a brute of a stage. The 195km route beween Castres and Ax-3-Domaines puts the hilly stages of the past week into sharp perspective. While those days were ruled by the punchers and the bunch sprint, tomorrow's stage will be a first chance for the overall contenders to test their strength. 

The first major climb of the day comes towards the end of the stage - the massive, hors categorie Col de Pailheres. It is on this climb that the peloton will disintegrate, leaving only the strongest riders at the front of the race at the summit. I think it is unlikely that we will see an attack from one of the main contenders for the maillot jaune on the early slopes of this climb, what is more likely will be a general increasing of the pace from their teammates in an attempt to drop those riders who are not feeling as strong. It could be an early exit to the race for the yellow jersey for one or two riders, and could be the source of some surprises. It will be a big test for the likes of Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen, and if they pass that test they could well be placing themselves in a strong position to challenge for a top 10 finish.

The next climb of the day starts immediately after the descent from the Col de Pailheres and it is almost as brutal. The category 1 climb up to Ax-3-Domaines is half the length of the previous climb, but has a steeper average gradient and is the climb to the finish line. If the main contenders want to attack, the base of this climb would probably provide them with the perfect opportunity. If Andy Schleck wants to win the yellow jersey this year, I feel he has to make a move on this climb. He will lose large chunks of time in the time trials to Froome, Contador and Evans, and needs to build a lead from early on if he wants to have any hope of winning the Tour. In 2011, when Evans won the Tour, Schleck left his bid for the yellow jersey much too late in the Tour, and wasn't able to build a large enough buffer between himself and Evans before the time trial. Tomorrow will be his chance to start building that buffer, and if he doesn't do so he'll have a much tougher time doing so later on in the Tour.

Contador will probably be looking at this stage enviously; it's the kind of stage that really suits his aggressive style of riding. If he feels he has the strength in his legs to ride away from his opponents, and his team have done enough work at the front of the peloton on the Col de Pailheres, then he may very well attack near the summit of this climb and try to ride alone to the finish. Contador is a strong descender and should have no difficulty holding or extending a small lead on the way to the base of Ax-3-Domaines.

Froome's job tomorrow is seemingly straightforward. He is the best placed rider of the overall contenders and will claim the yellow jersey if none of his rivals ride away from him. All Froome needs to do to ensure his place in yellow is mark the attacks of the other riders. However, if he takes this approach he is likely to end up with only a very small lead over the next best rider. If Froome wants to stake his claim on the yellow jersey he will have to do more than just watch the moves of his opponents, he'll have to do some attacking of his own. Whatever he chooses to do, one thing is almost certain - the yellow jersey will be changing hands tomorrow. Daryl Impey will not be able to match the pace set by the main contenders up the mountains on tomorrow's stage, and his history-making time in the yellow jersey will come to an end. The high mountains have rolled around, and it is time for the overall contenders to take the stage.