It's Decided!

Stage 20: Annecy - Annecy-Semnoz

On the eve of the ride into Paris, the final positions in the overall standings were decided. The front end of the race underwent a rather drastic reshuffle for so late in the race, Froome retained his yellow jersey and will be the winner of the Tour, but behind him the top 10 were sorted out in dramatic fashion.

All the aggression was saved for the final climb of the day, the last hors categorie climb in the Tour up to Annecy-Semnoz. At the base of the climb, Team Sky reasserted their control over the peloton after having let Movistar drive the pace for most of the latter part of the stage. The effect on the race (behind and in front) was immediate, the peloton fell to pieces, leaving a select group of riders in charge, and Jens Voigt's daring breakaway was reeled in.

One-by-one the riders fell away, until the top five riders were left in the led of the race, accompanied by Richie Porte and Alejandro Valverde. Rodriguez needed time to move up into his desired place on the podium, and an opportunity to gain time afforded itself to him when Valverde's pace-making on the front of the group caused Kreuziger to drop off the back. Spurred on by the weakness shown by Kreuziger, Rodriguez attacked and Quintana followed him. No response came from Contador, and Froome bolted up to road to the two riders and immediately attacked them.

Froome's attack came to nothing, as Rodriguez and Quintana were able to drag themselves on to his wheel. No more attacks were forthcoming, at least for a little while, as the three riders realised that their best chance of achieving their objectives would come from working together. Contador was struggling, and a podium finish for Rodriguez awaited at the finish line if they could stretch the gap.

Alejandro Valverde tried to bridge the gap, but the task proved to be too much for him and he found himself between the groups of Contador and Froome - he would ride there to the finish. Behind him, Kreuziger was dragging himself up to the duo of Contador and Porte. Kreuziger joined them, and would pace Contador to the finish, but it wouldn't be enough to save Contador's spot on the podium.

With one kilometre left in the stage, Chris Froome dug deep into his energy reserves, and made one final attack. A win on the stage would secure the polka-dot jersey, and his fourth stage win of the Tour, but it was not to be. Quintana, learning from his mistakes on earlier mountain stages, had held something in reserve and responded to Froome's move. The young Colombian easily bridged the gap to Froome, attacked immediately and rode comfortably clear to the summit. In doing so, he claimed his first ever stage win in the Tour, and earned enough points to give him a win in the King of the Mountains classification.

Froome's effort had drained him of his last scraps of energy, and he was soon dropped by Rodriguez. His efforts on the stage and in the Tour had been rewarded, however. He lost a few seconds to both Rodriguez and Quintana, but his lead in the general classification was not under threat. He crossed the line 29 seconds behind Quintana, but a smile graced his lips - he was 5 minutes clear in the overall standings. The yellow jersey had been won in the most commanding fashion in recent years. He had won the hundredth edition of the Tour de France. He had cemented his place in Tour history. He had earned his smile.

Champs

The parade day of the Tour de France has come about. It promises to be quite the spectacle too. The peloton departs in the evening, and is set to finish in Paris around 10PM. It will be a remarkable finish to this remarkable hundredth Tour de France.

Froome will take to the podium, accompanied by Quintana and Rodriguez. Peter Sagan will stand on the top step in the race for the green jersey. Quintana will wear both the white and the polka-dot jersey. The most aggressive rider of the Tour will be decided - Jan Bakelants has made a strong bid for this classification, as have Blel Kadri and Pierre Rolland. Team Saxo-Tinkoff's efforts will be rewarded, as they claim the title of the best team in the Tour. And, importantly, Svein Tuft will bear the mantle of lanterne rouge into Paris. The only thing that remains undecided is the winner on the Champs Elysees.

Every time Cavendish has ridden into Paris in the Tour, he has won the stage on the Champs Elysees. For the last four years, he has dominated the sprint for the line on the final stage of the Tour. Will he make it five? He will no doubt be in contention, but he will have strong challenges from Kittel, Greipel and Sagan. Marcel Kittel has certainly stood out as a sprinter this year, winning three stages and outsprinting both Greipel and Cavendish in the process. I would not be surprised at all if he was able to take a fourth stage win. Greipel has been lacking some finishing capacity, but his strength in the intermediate sprints is unquestionable - if he brings some of that strength to the finish tomorrow he'll be a tough man to beat. Sagan will probably have handled the mountains better than his rivals, and may benefit from somewhat fresher legs - if this is the case though, he'll need a great lead out if he wants to win the stage. His top end speed isn't quite on the same level as the other pure sprinters, and he will need things to go well for him tomorrow if he to win on the iconic stage.

Scrapping for Seconds: The Final Showdown Approaches

Stage 19: Bourg-d'Oisons - Le Grand-Bornard

One of the toughest days in the Tour, which had promised so much drama in the race for the yellow jersey, was largely uneventful in that regard. In the race to be named the King of the Mountains, however, today's stage truly delivered. It was a stage that brought Pierre Rolland and Mikel Nieve back into contention for the polka-dot jersey, and set up the final mountain stage perfectly.

Rui Costa, for the second time in the Tour, timed his attack to perfection. He was in the breakaway at the time, and his attack and rapid climb up the final mountain set him up to claim his second stage win in the race. He had been in the breakaway that had led for most of the race, and he attacked when the breakaway was slowing somewhat - giving him a gap over the chase group at the top of the final climb. With a solid gap of 45 seconds at the top of the climb, Costa's victory was assured. An attempt to bridge the gap came from Andreas Kloden, but it was left too late and the rider from Radioshack would have to settle for second on the day.

In the overall race, the action was limited to just one move towards the end of the last climb of the day. The move came from Rodriguez, and it was an attempt to claw back some time before the final day in the mountains - or perhaps, to move himself up in the overall standings. For a brief moment it looked as though he would be achieving his objectives, as Kreuziger dropped away. However, Kreuziger bridged the gap on the descent and ended up finishing with the other contenders. Contador, Quintana and Froome all looked comfortable in their response to Rodriguez's attack, a good sign for an exciting stage tomorrow.

The most exciting aspect of today's stage was definitely the race for the polka-dot jersey. Pierre Rolland and Mikel Nieve were both involved in the breakaway, and both found themselves moving up in the standings at the end of the day. Rolland was the more aggressive of the two riders, and could well have claimed the polka-dot jersey if not for him cracking on the final climb. His efforts reduced the points difference between himself and Froome to just one point, while putting him 5 points clear of Mikel Nieve.

 A Last Chance

Tomorrow is effectively the last day in the Tour de France. The final stage is always a parade day, on which the peloton rides into Paris for a final chance at a stage win, and the final ceremony. The podium places will be set by the end of the stage tomorrow, as will the winners of each classification. And so, as the final days of the Tour loom the riders are presented with a chance to gain time, or points in one final bid.

The penultimate stage is one of the shortest in this year's Tour (just 125 kilometres long), but it is also one of the toughest. The stage features two very difficult climbs, the category 1 Mont Revard, and the hors categorie climb to the finish at Annecy-Semnoz. Because the stage is so short, the possibility that a rider could attack on the Mont Revard and ride clear to the finish is actually a live possibility. Large amounts of time could be gained or lost - this stage could well produce a the shock that it was always set out to do.

The shock that could happen is unlikely to be a change in the yellow jersey, but the race for the podium has never been closer. Four riders are competing for the other spots on the podium, and they are separated by mere seconds. Today, Rodriguez showed a glimpse of what is surely to come from him tomorrow. He wants to be on the podium in Paris and, as the lowest placed rider in actual contention for the podium he will have to get aggressive on the climbs. Quintana is also likely to go on the offensive, as the second place spot is well within his reach, all he has to do is crack Contador. This all adds up to a fantastic showdown on the final climb of the Tour. I can hardly wait.

The race to be named the King of the Mountains is the closest it has been throughout the race. Five riders are in close contention for the top spot, separated by just 11 points. The stage tomorrow offers a maximum of 71 points, with 50 of those being awarded on the final climb. The King of the Mountains will, quite fittingly, be decided on the final climb of the Tour. Quintana's aggression, and perhaps his desire for a stage win may well earn him this jersey. If he is able to win the stage, he will earn enough points to win the polka-dot jersey. A white jersey, a podium finish, and the title of King in the Mountains in his debut Tour would put his name down in the record books as one of the best rookies ever to take to the course.

Rolland's recovery tonight will determine if he's an actual threat to Quintana and Nieve in this classification. Froome, the leader in the race for the polka-dot jersey, is largely disinterested in the race for this jersey. His disinterest plays into the hands of the other riders and, while he's not likely to let Quintana escape, space may present itself for Nieve, Riblon or Rolland to make their bid for the jersey. Again, however, question remain over whether or not these riders can keep pace with the overall contenders on the final climb - if they are in the breakaway they may be caught, and if they are in the peloton they may get dropped. Whatever happens, I think their strategies should all be the same - to target the final climb. The last mountain in the Tour offers 5 times the number of points than the category 1 climb of the day, the riders must be aware of this and save their effort for when it counts. Summiting first over the category 1 climb may payout a decent sum of money, but the payoffs for winning the King of the Mountains classification will be much greater.

The Alpe d'Huez Delivers

Stage 18: Gap - Alpe d'Huez

The most iconic day of racing in the Tour de France this year was one of the most dramatic so far. It was a crazy day out in the Alps. The peloton rode up the famous Alpe d'Huez twice, Chris Froome struggled but ended up finishing the with a larger lead at the end of the day than that with which he had started, and Christophe Riblon - who looked a beaten man on more than one occasion - surged in the final 5 kilometres to claim a first victory for France in this year's Tour.

A breakaway of nine riders escaped from the peloton after just 17 kilometres of racing. It was this breakaway that would provide the eventual stage winner, Christophe Riblon, with a platform to launch from. However, his ride off the front of the breakaway would come as a response to a move by Tejay van Garderen on the early slopes of the first ascent of the Alpe d'Huez. As the breakaway reached the Alpe d'Huez, van Garderen attacked and rode clear. His move defined the latter part of the stage, as the breakaway crumbled behind him and only Riblon and Moreno Moser were left chasing him. The two riders combined their efforts and were able to bridge the gap to van Garderen just before they reached the summit.

The three riders led the race over the next col, but both Riblon and van Garderen were caught out by the tricky descent. Van Garderen's chain got stuck and he was forced to wait a long time for his support car, and further down the slope Riblon misjudged a corner and ended up off the side of the road. Despite the glitches, both of the riders were able to catch back up to Moser, and as soon as they hit the slopes of the Alpe d'Huez for the second time they rode clear of him.

Still with a long way to ride, the young American attacked and started his lone ride up the fabled Alpe. It was a move that, at the time, looked to have been the stage winning attack. However, Riblon remained calm and rode at a steady tempo - keeping the gap between him and the leader to just 40 seconds. Van Garderen rode valiantly up the legendary mountain, but he started to falter with about 5 kilometres to go. Spurred on by the faltering rider ahead, and no doubt by the possibility of a French victory on the Alpe d'Huez, Riblon launched his bid for the stage win. Over the next three kilometres Riblon reduced the gap to van Garderen, and with just 2 kilometres left in the stage he caught him. Riblon's attack was immediate - no sooner had he reached the wheel of the rider in front than he attacked and rode to victory. His emotion was plain to see, it was a massive victory for the French rider, and in claiming a first win for France, he simultaneously wrote his name into the record books, alongside the many great cyclists who have gone before him.

Behind the three leaders, the race for the yellow jersey was heating up. On the first ascent of the Alpe d'Huez, the peloton had decided to ride together and withhold their attacks. Likewise on the ascent of the Col de Sarenne. It was on the treacherous descent of the Col de Sarenne that the first move was made. Alberto Contador attacked on a straight stretch of road, and rode off the front of the peloton with Roman Kreuziger in an attempt to reach the base of Alpe d'Huez 2 ahead of the main field. The dangerous roads down the side of the col suited Contador, but he was unable to maintain his advantage. The riders from Movistar took control of the peloton on the wider roads at the bottom of the mountain and closed the gap that had been formed.

At the base of the climb, the peloton started to shatter and Team Sky came to the front once more. Richie Porte rode to the front of the group, and set a pace that quickly trimmed down the peloton. Bauke Mollema and Laurens ten Dam were unable to keep pace, and both dropped off the back fairly early on. The onslaught continued, and before long the yellow jersey group was whittled down to just ten riders - amongst them were Contador, Kreuziger, Quintana, Rodriguez and Valverde.

Porte's pace soon dislodged Kreuziger from the group, and Froome saw his chance to attack. The yellow jersey accelerated up the road in his recognisable, frantic style. Only Quintana was able to respond to the move immediately, but Rodriguez bridged the gap a few moments later. Contador and Kreuziger were dropped, and they would lost further time to the maillot jaune by the day's end.

Rodriguez knew that his chance to put himself in contention for a podium finish was at hand, and he attacked the yellow jersey. Neither Quintana nor Froome could respond immediately, but they rode a steady pace to reel him back in. Surprisingly, Porte was able to rejoin the three riders - it was a move that would prove vital, as Froome would find himself in need of Porte's support before the day was out.

With just over 5 kilometres to go, Quintana attacked and Froome shot his hand into the air, calling for support. It seemed that he was having a mechanical issue, but in actuality he was struggling. Porte dropped back to the team car and collected food for Froome, an illegal move at that stage of the race that is sure to come under fire from the other riders, and will perhaps result in Team Sky being penalised.

Froome ate, and for the last four kilometres was concerned only with limiting the damage done by Quintana. Ahead of him, Quintana and Rodriguez were working well together and building a lead. By the time the stage finished, Quintana had ridden himself over a minute clear of Froome, and into third place in the overall standings. Quintana moved up two places in the general classification, and narrowed the gap between himself and Contador to just 21 seconds. Rodriguez also moved up in the standings and is now only 26 seconds behind Quintana, and a possible podium finish in Paris.

Despite Froome's apparent cracking on the final climb, he finds himself with a larger lead at the end of today's stage than he had at the start. Contador is still in second place, but lies just over 5 minutes behind Froome. Contador started the day as Froome's biggest threat, but he undoubtedly passes that mantle over to Quintana. The Colombian, although in third, is the only remaining challenge to Froome's hold on the yellow jersey.

I said yesterday that a gain of time for Froome would be a psychological victory that could subdue the challenges to his claim on the maillot jaune. Today's stage was a bit of a mixed bag for him. On the one hand, he will be happy to take away the gain in time over Contador, and perhaps the mental advantage over him. But on the other hand, he showed weakness and was beaten by perhaps his closest rival at this stage. How he will respond remains to be seen.

The Madness Continues
If the riders thought today was difficult, they will probably be rather scared of the stage tomorrow. Arguably the toughest day in the Tour this year, the peloton will have to tackle two hors categorie climbs at the start of the race - the Col du Glandon and the Col de la Madeleine. The madness continues when they will have to ride over a further 3 massive cols in the last 60 kilometres.

The stage doesn't finish on the top of a mountain, but it does provide an opportunity for time gaps to form. The long downhill run to the finish will favour the rider in front, and almost any gap - no matter how small - could be maintained on the run in to Le Grand-Bornard.

I expect that Movistar will try something similar to what they did on the second day of the Pyrenees - isolate Froome and attack him when he's alone. Quintana could find himself moving up in the standings at the end of the day, and could well add red polka-dots to his white jersey. Froome showed some weakness today, which is reassuring to me - it proves he's human - but if anything it showed that he is capable of holding his lead even on the toughest days. His buffer is increased and he will be reassured by that. All he'll have to do is weather the attacks that are bound to come from Quintana in the next two days and he will wear yellow in Paris.

Preparing for the Alpe

I wasn't able to write my blog yesterday, so I will have to do a quick recap of the events that preceded today's time trial. Yesterday's stage was won by the breakaway. The final climb was the stage for all the in-fighting in the break, and Rui Costa of Movistar was the rider to capitalise on the attacks and ride clear. He built an advantage over the rest of the breakaway on the final stretch of the category 2 climb, and was able to ride away to the finish on the downhill. It was a well-timed attack that gave him the gap over the rest of the, and the gap he held at the top of the climb - small though it was - was always going to be maintained due to the long downhill ride to the finish.

When the peloton hit the final climb, the accelerations started to come from the main contenders. Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger attacked mutliple times to try and put some distance between themselves and Froome, but the Sky rider was able to match their challenges. Laurens ten Dam, however, was unable to keep the pace and was dropped on the run up to the summit of the final climb. At the end of the day, ten Dam had lost his fifth place overall to Nairo Quintana.

The attacking ride from Contador (and his ride today - see below) showed that he is finding some strength in the latter part of this race, and could be a major threat to Chris Froome's lead on the last three (incredibly tough) mountain stages. Kreuziger will be with him all the way, and Froome is going to have to rely on the support of Richie Porte if he wants to endure the attacks that are bound to come.

Stage 17: Embrun - Chorges

The second individual time trial of this year's Tour was about the same length as the first one, but the similarities ended there. While the route for the first time trial was pan flat, today's course took the riders over two category two climbs. The roads were narrow and treacherous, and a shower of rain in the middle part of the race made the descents even more tricky. The course suited the climbers more than it suited the pure time trialists and, when the last few riders left the starting block, the difference in pace between the front end of the race and those behind was clear to see.

It was Alejandro Valverde who first lit up the race at the top end of the field. He blitzed up the two climbs and down to the finish, setting the standard for the contenders in the general classification. His ride today put on display the fact that he would still be a contender for the yellow jersey if it was not for his poor luck on Friday last week. A broken tyre effectively knocked him out of the race and the dynamics of the race would be so much different if not for his misfortune. Such is the Tour.

Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha has had a seemingly quiet Tour, but has been gaining strength as the race goes on. He took to the course a little while after Valverde and rode a superb time trial. At each intermediate time check he set the new standard, and he finished 20 seconds ahead of Valverde's time. Rodiguez has stated that he wants to finish on the podium in Paris - it will be a very tough task as he has to gain a lot of time on the riders ahead of him, but strong performances like today's show that he may well have the legs to challenge the likes of Kreuziger and Quintana for a top 3 position.

Rodriguez's time in the hotseat was limited however. Contador took to the course with a vengeance, attacking the climbs and descending as though he had no regard for his safety. His objectives were clear - he was there to put time into the yellow jersey of Chris Froome, and claw his way back into contention before the massive stage tomorrow. His attacking ride apperead to be paying off when Bauke Mollema took to the course and immediately started to fall behind. The Dutch rider struggled on the course today, and ended up losing almost two minutes to Contador, Froome and Kreuziger. He had dropped to fourth in the overall standings at the end of the stage.

Froome took to the course last, and rode though the first time check just 2 seconds behind Contador's time. Contador's aggressive descending appeared to have worked when Froome reached the second check point almost 20 seconds behind Contador. It looked, for a while, like Contador was going to claim back around 30 to 45 seconds on Froome at the end of the day. Again, Froome showed why he is the fastest rider in the peloton, and why he is the man to beat this year. He rode himself back into contention on the second climb, summiting just 11 seconds behind Contador's time. However, the 11 second gap included a bike change just before the summit, and Froome would probably have been ahead of Contador at the top if not for the change. Froome's descent to the finish was rapid, and despite a squall that threatened to impact his time, he was able to ride to the finish faster than anyone else. Froome won the stage, and put a further 9 seconds between himself and Contador. Kreuziger moved up into third at the end of the day, but now lies almost 5 minutes behind Froome.

A special mention of Quintana's ride needs to be made. Quintana finished ahead of Michal Kwiatkowski and managed to gain more time in the white jersey classification. It is almost certain that he will ride into Paris with the white jersey, but the real question is if he will manage to claim a podium spot whilst doing so. I think the young rider from Colombia could do it. He will have the time and space in the Alps to attack Kreuziger and Mollema. They will likely be unable to respond, as they haven't mustered a response thus far.

Alpe d'Huez
This is the stage I've been waiting for! My absolute favourite climb in the Tour de France, the iconic Alpe d'Huez, gets summited twice in one day. The riders will have to climb through its legendary 21 switchbacks on two occasions, battling the gradient and length of this hors categorie giant. What makes this mountain so special is that it is a place where legends are made. The Galibier, the Tourmalet and the Izoard are all climbs that stand out in the history of the Tour, but it is the Alpe that seemingly defines a rider's greatness.

The stage tomorrow is grueling. An ascent of the Alpe d'Huez just once is a massive task, but ascending it twice - the second time being to the finish line - is just brutal. Only the strongest riders will be left at the end of tomorrow's stage and the yellow jersey may well be well-and-truly decided. Few people can argue against Chris Froome's dominance this year, but as I've said it only takes one mistake, one bad day in the saddle to lose the yellow jersey. Froome holds a lead of 4 minutes and 34 seconds over Alberto Contador, the very man I expect to be most aggressive on the climb up the Alpe.

Contador has said that he doesn't care if he finishes 2nd or 10th in the general classification, his goal is to win the Tour. I take this to mean that Contador is going to be looking for every opportunity to attack, even if doing so might push him beyond his limits. Contador will lay everything on the line in the next few days, and the results will either be fruitful or absolutely disastrous. Contador is looking for a lot of time, and his attacks will have to come early if he wants to gain that time back. I don't think he will attack on the first ascent of the Alpe d'Huez, as it may be too much to do alone from there on out. I expect that Saxo-Tinkoff will come to the front with Movistar and try to isolate Froome as they did on the second day in the Pyrenees. If they are able to do so, or perhaps even if they aren't they very next climb might provide the platform for the attack.

The category 2 Col de Sarenne and a long descent separate the two climbs of the Alpe d'Huez. The col is a relatively short climb with a sharp gradient, and it could well be the place for Contador or Quintana to jump clear of the yellow jersey group. The time that Contador needs means he will have to gamble on a fairly long run to the finish, and hope he has the legs to sustain the effort. Contador descends really well, and could well use the descent down to the start of the second climb of the Alpe d'Huez to set up a solo attempt at the climb - ahead of Froome.

Rodriguez and Quintana mat well be looking to do something similar, although I expect Quintana to be a little bit more reticent after his early attack on the Mont Ventoux. He may wait a bit longer to go on the offensive and try to pick up a stage win.

But what about Froome? The big question in this Tour is whether or not Froome can be beaten. He has been isolated before, he has fallen prey to a nasty split in the peloton, but at every stage he has proven himself to be the strongest rider in the peloton. Will he crack in the last part of the race? I doubt it, I really do. But I have this nagging voice in my head that tells me the best of Contador is yet to come, and Froome may well find himself in a spot of bother at some stage between now and Paris. I don't think he will be dislodged from the top spot easily, but on a stage like tomorrow's riders could lose very large chunks of time.

Knowing this, Froome could well put this Tour to rest. If he is able to attack the peloton and ride clear like he did on the Mont Ventoux, it is likely to be the final straw. If he puts more time between himself and his contenders, their morale will probably shatter and the race will be won. I could already see the disappointment in Contador's face today as Froome crossed the line ahead of him, taking the yellow jersey further out of reach. A victory for Froome tomorrow, even if not a stage victory but one of time, could be too large a psychological hurdle to overcome.

So, I've said a lot without saying much at all. Who will attack? I don't know, but those riders sitting in places 2 to 5 will have to if they want to retain any hope of winning the Tour. Who will wear yellow after tomorrow? It seems naive to say anyone but Chris Froome, but it wouldn't be uncharacteristic of the Tour to serve up a surprise. What about the King of the Mountains? It's a bit of a toss-up between Froome and Quintana, and will basically come down to the final ascent of the Alpe d'Huez. Rolland may try to get himself into the breakaway to secure some points, but I don't foresee a breakaway lasting to the finish if the riders start attacking each other. I'm going to go ahead and say Froome will still be the leader in this classification tomorrow night.

Another Rest Day Recap

Rest Day: Vaucluse

The past week in the Tour has offered up a whole host of things to talk about. There were some surprises, like watching the peloton split apart on Friday on a very flat stage. Other things were predicted, and seemed to follow the path they always would, like Sagan cementing his place in the green jersey, and Quintana attacking on the Mont Ventoux to claim the white jersey. IN this second rest day recap, I'll take a look once more at how the classifications have turned out.

Green Jersey

This classification is decided. Peter Sagan will wear the green jersey into Paris, barring his elimination from the race. Greipel and Cavendish are simply too far behind to challenge his lead in the green jersey competition. In fact, Sagan may well extend his lead by the time the peloton reaches the Champs Elysees, with one hilly stage on which the other sprinters will probably struggle. 

Sagan has, this year, shown that Hushovd's strategy of winning on the hilly stages in the Tour is a vital ploy for claiming the green jersey. The ability to accumulate points on all flat or flattish stages is perhaps more important than the pure pace required to win a sprint. Now, that's not to say that top end speed is not still important, but rather points to the fact that strength in the sprints should be coupled with at least some ability to get over the tougher hills in the Tour. Sagan and Hushovd's efforts may just be redefining what needs to be done to win the green jersey.

Polka-dot Jersey

Chris Froome has found himself in possession of the polka-dot jersey for the best climber in the Tour as a result of his two stage wins on mountain tops, as well as collecting some points on the other climbs. Froome's lead in this classification is no doubt incidental - he wouldn't have been targeting it at the start of the Tour as his focus is on yellow, but having incentive to be aggressive on the high-scoring climbs to gain in the yellow jersey competition has earned him the lead in the King of the Mountains classification.

This classification is arguably the most open of all the classifications. There are still a lot of points to be had in the last week of the Tour, and there are a lot of riders who will be looking to get themselves points in this classification. Rolland lost out on the Ventoux, cracking on the early slopes of the climb, but he will definitely be targeting the high mountains to earn some more points. His position in the overall standings is now much lower than it was in the second week of the Tour, and he'll certainly be given leeway by the peloton to chase the jersey.

What remains to be seen is if Quintana will change his aims in this year's Tour. He is set for a high overall finish, but he is also second in the King of the Mountains classification. If he plays his cards right he could well win two of the jersey classifications this year. He will be a marked man, however, and will need to have a sound plan to get the jersey off Froome. Froome will be watching him closely as he is a threat to the yellow jersey. Quintana will struggle to find the space to go after points in this classification. Incidentally, the attacks from Quintana and Froome on the consequential stages could secure Froome a win in this classification. If he continues to finish near the front of the race in the high mountains, he could end up with the polka-dot jersey in Paris.

White Jersey

The best young rider in this year's Tour is almost undoubtedly Nairo Quintana. He has been incredibly impressive in the high mountains, and is the only young rider who is in contention for the yellow jersey. While his chances of winning the yellow jersey seem slim, he is almost assured to win the white jersey. The mountains between now and the end of the Tour will suit his riding style, and he will be certain to put more distance between himself and second-placed Michal Kwiatkowski.

Kwiatkowsi may gain some time back in the time trial, but with two category 2 climbs to get over the time trial is somewhat more favourable for Quintana. He may yet lose time to Kwiatkowski, but the climbs will mitigate his losses somewhat. 

Yellow Jersey

Chris Froome has shown himself to be the dominant rider in the Tour. His grip on the yellow jersey is firm, as he has a lead of over four minutes to the next best rider. Froome's lead is not insurmountable, but his performance on the Mont Ventoux and Ax-3-Domaines showed that he is very strong, and will be difficult to ride away from. Some moments of weakness from Team Sky have left the door marginally open for the other competitors. Four minutes certainly can be made up, but it will be very difficult to do. At this stage it looks like the yellow jersey will stay with Froome to Paris, but as always with the Tour nothing is certain.

The race for second place is one to watch closely. With 4 riders all within 40 seconds of each other, the second place spot in the overall standings is highly contested. Contador and Kreuziger put some time into Bauke Mollema on the Mont Ventoux, but Mollema has been riding incredibly well and has matched Contador at almost every turn. Having the help of his teammate, Laurens ten Dam, will definitely stand him in good stead going into the last week. Contador and Kreuziger are also teammates, and at points Kreuziger could be seen to be climbing better than Contador, the extent to which they will ride in support of each other will remain to be seen.

The Giant of Provence

Stage 15: Givors - Mont Ventoux

The entrance to the Alps could not have been more spectacular. Bastille Day presented the longest day in the Tour this year, an incredible 242 kilometres with a summit finish on the Mont Ventoux - the hors categorie climb that is as legendary as it is infamous. The Tour contenders once again came to the fore, and in yet another dominant performance, Chris Froome rode clear to take the stage win and stretch the lead over his opponents.

A breakaway led for most of the stage - a flat run to the base of Mont Ventoux - with Peter Sagan along for the ride, and looking for the points at the intermediate sprint. The sprint point came as the race was approaching the base of the Mont Ventoux and Sagan was able to secure himself the 20 points on offer - securing the green jersey win in Paris. With his work done, he was able to coast along with the breakaway and wait to be caught on the early slopes of the Ventoux.

The same, however, was not true for his companions in the breakaway. When the breakaway neared the base of the 20 kilometre giant, Sylvain Chavanel attacked and escaped in an attempt to take a stage win for France on Bastille Day. Bastille Day is typically a day for the French riders, who all seem to be at their most aggressive - constantly on the attack in search of a stage win. It was no surprise to see Chavanel go on the attack. He rode powerfully, but his breakaway attempt was destined to fail, as the peloton was charging up the road to set up the attacks on the final climb. 

The pace set by the peloton was too much for some of the riders, and as the peloton neared the climb some of the riders started to fall off the back of the bunch. It was a peloton led by Sky and Movistar, with each team trying to set their contenders up as well as possible. The main field was cracking even before the peloton had reached the Mont Ventoux, and it simply exploded when the riders reached the steeper parts of the climb. When the climb truly set in the cameras shifted to the back of the peloton, where the lone figure of Andy Schleck was seen slipping off the pace. He cracked early on, the length of the stage and the pace proving too much for the Radioshack rider who has been struggling for form. As he slipped backwards any hope of a high overall finish seemed to disappear.

Not long after Schleck was seen to be faltering, the expected attack of the day happened. Nairo Quintana accelerated off the front of the peloton and quickly caught up to the remaining riders in the breakaway. Their pace wasn't fast enough for Quintana, and he rode clear of them taking Mikel Nieve with him. The two riders led the race and increased the gap to the peloton to 45 seconds. The peloton was being led by riders from Sky who were holding a steady, but powerful tempo (a tempo that proved too much for Cadel Evans, who was dropped just after Quintana's acceleration). They held the gap at 45 seconds for what seemed like an age. The race was seemingly in a state of equilibrium - the leaders were not gaining any more time on the yellow jersey, but nor was the yellow jersey responding. And then Richie Porte came to the fore.

Porte accelerated the peloton's pace and absolutely decimated the main field. Valverde was dropped along with Mollema and Laurens ten Dam. Kreuziger also couldn't hold the pace, and the yellow jersey group was reduced to just three riders - Froome, Porte and Contador. The acceleration from Porte shattered the lead that Quintana had managed to build, reducing it to just 15 seconds. With 7 kilometres to go to the summit and the stage finish, Porte's acceleration was over. The Sky rider had done everything possible to set Foome up, and as soon as he had swung off the front of the yellow jersey group, Froome attacked. Contador was left stranded, and Froome powered up road to join Quintana.

Quintana had dropped Nieve just moments before, and when Froome was joining him at the front of the race, Contador was joining Nieve 15 seconds back. Froome immediately attacked, but Quintana responded and was able to hold his wheel. The riders, who have proven to be two of the Tour's best climbers, started to extend their lead over the rest of the field, and with three kilometres to go they had built a lead of a minute over Contador and Nieve.

With just over a kilometre to go, and with Froome doing all the work at the front of the race, it appeared that Quintana might have the legs to ride to the finish with Froome and take the stage win. But Froome was not to be outdone, he attacked and opened a gap between himself and the Colombian. The acceleration from Froome cracked the young rider, and in the last kilometre he lost 29 seconds to Froome. Froome's final acceleration secured another stage win for him in the Tour and gave him a more commanding lead in the race for the yellow jersey.

None of Froome's competitors could match him today, and it seems that he is building an almost unassailable lead in the overall race. At the end of the stage he had almost doubled the gap between him and second-placed Bauke Mollema. Contador seemingly cracked in the last kilometre and the lead he had built over Mollema, and his own teammate, Kreuziger, had completely diminished. Contador gained only 6 seconds on Mollema on the day, and actually finished on the wheel of Kreuziger. He had lost 1 minute and 40 seconds to Froome, and a little over a minute to Quintana.

The maillot jaune is now just over 4 minutes clear of Mollema and Contador. Froome's performances in the mountains and time trials are rapidly turning the race into a race for second, but the last week of the Tour is unforgiving and large chunks of time can be lost. Froome could yet surrender the yellow jersey to another rider, but performances like today's make that seem less and less likely. Quintana's white jersey seems secure after today's performance. He put over two minutes into Michal Kwiatkowski, and with more mountains to come, that lead is set to grow by the time the race reaches Paris.

Rest Day

I haven't written my blog in the last couple of days. If you were anticipating it, then I apologise. I missed a cracker of a day on Friday, and didn't have time to blog about yesterday's stage. I'm back at university this week, and will be trying to keep the blog posts coming, but bear with me if they're a little later than normal.

Tomorrow is a rest day, which means I get to do another recap and a preview of the stages to come. The last week in the tour is absolutely incredible, and I can't wait for it to begin. A double summit of the Alpe d'Huez and the second last stage finishing on an hors categorie climb. This race may not look like it, but it's still wide open. 4 minutes can easily be gained or lost in this last week, and if the Tour has proven anything, it's proven that nothing is certain until you wear that beautiful jersey into Paris.

A Third for Kittel

Stage 12: Fougeres - Tours

A flat stage in the Tour is always a target for the sprinters, and today was no different. The 218 kilometre route to Tours was all just to set up a sprint to the line, to collect a stage win and some points in the green jersey classification. Marcel Kittel has been sprinting superbly in this year's Tour and, in a powerful dash for the line, he bested Cavendish to claim his third stage win in the Tour.

Mark Cavendish will probably be somewhat disappointed with his sprint to the line today, not because he didn't sprint well but because he didn't realise Kittel was coming up on his inside. Cavendish's lead out was almost perfect, and he was launched to the line at the perfect time and in the perfect position. He simply does not lose sprints like today's. Perhaps his finish was a lapse in concentration, thinking that the sprint was won, but even so that does not detract from the great sprint by Marcel Kittel. The German rider locked on to Cavendish's wheel as he came past and used him as his lead out, sprinting to the line to get ahead of Cavendish by just half a wheel length.

Kittel's win today was his third win of this year's Tour, and it really announced his presence as one of the world class sprinters. The other sprinters seem not to have been taking him too seriously as he had fallen down in the standings in the green jersey classification, but they will now know that he is a serious contender, and a seriously talented sprinter. With wins over both Greipel and Cavendish in the last two sprint finishes, he is surely brimming with confidence and will definitely be looking for more stage wins before this Tour is over.

Sagan finished third on the day's stage, but in doing so effectively wrapped up the green jersey classification. His third place finish puts him 94 points ahead of second-placed Cavendish. I have said before that it would take a crash from Sagan to allow his competitors back into contention, but the same logic applies to his competitors. A crash would take them out of the running for the green jersey. Sagan's green jersey is seemingly safe now, following a crash that involved Greipel in the last 2 kilometres of the race. The sprinter on Lotto-Belisol fell heavily in a crash near the front end of the peloton as his teammates tried to move him into a position to sprint for the line. His crash meant he was unable to contend for points at the end of the stage and fell into third in the points classification, more than 100 points behind Sagan.

The crash happened in the last 3 kilometres, and all the riders caught out were given the same time at the end of the stage. No contenders for the overall classification were involved in the crash and so they won't be sporting any injuries on tomorrow's stage, or in the mountains that follow. The race for the yellow jersey wasn't affected by the crash, so the race is still open. But Froome's grip on the maillot jaune  is tight and it will take a huge effort to dislodge him from the top spot.

A Breakaway

Tomorrow's stage will probably come down to a sprint again, with the likely contenders for the sprint victory being the those riders I have mentioned so far. Cavendish, Greipel, Sagan and Kittel should all be present at the end of the stage and will probably fight it out for a stage victory. Cavendish and Greipel will be smarting after being beaten in the last few metres by Kittel and will probably be looking to dominate the peloton on tomorrow's stage. Their lead outs will fight against each other for control and could just provide the chaos needed for Sagan or Kittel to break free and take the win.

But why did I entitle this section 'A Breakaway?' Well, I'm traveling for the whole day tomorrow and won't be able to watch most of the stage. I might catch the finish if I'm lucky, but in all likelihood I won't. This means I won't have the material I need to write a blog post. I'll be back and writing on Saturday, where I'll probably be doing a preview of the epic Bastille day ascent of the Mont Ventoux. It's going to be an incredible first day in the Alps, and I can barely wait.

A Race Against the Clock

Stage 11: Avranches - Mont-Saint-Michel

The first individual time trial of this year's Tour gave Chris Froome a chance to put some distance between him and his main rivals in the general classification, and by the end of the stage he had done exactly that. His effort wasn't enough to get him the stage victory - that honour went to the World Time Trial Champion, Tony Martin - but it has put him in a rather commanding lead over the rest of the peloton.

Martin set the target quite early on in the day's proceedings as he is rather far down in the general classification. His time for the 33 kilometre course showed why he is the champion in this discipline, as he rode the course a full minute faster than the next best rider at the time. It was an advantage that would remain uncontested until Chris Froome took to the course, almost 3 hours later. When Froome took to the course it seemed that Martin's lead was under threat, but the yellow jersey wearer faded a little bit in the final few kilometres and finished 12 seconds behind Martin. This came after Froome had gone faster than Martin through both of the intermediate time checks. In the end, however, the headwind that had picked up during the course of the day probably worked in Martin's favour and he walked away with a stage win.

The showdown for the yellow jersey took place at the end of the day as the highest placed cyclists in the overall standings took to the course. When Froome took to the course it immediately became apparent that the time deficits at the end of the day would hinge on how well each of the riders could limit the damage done to their time. It was never a race to beat Froome, and instead it turned into a race for second in the overall standings. At the end of the day, Froome had ridden himself a further two minutes clear of the rider in second place, Alejandro Valverde.

Valverde rode a strong time trial, and maintained his place in the overall standings when the stage was done. However, the rider behind him in the standings, Bauke Mollema, fared marginally better on the course and finished 7 seconds ahead of Valverde, making him the highest placed overall contender at the end of the day besides Froome. Contador and Kreuziger have been seemingly inseparable in this year's Tour, and the time trial only reinforced that idea. Contador finished in fifteenth on today's stage, 2 minutes and 3 seconds behind Chris Froome; Kreuziger finished just one place further back, 3 seconds behind Contador. Kreuziger is in a perfect position to take over the lead of Saxo-Tinkoff should Contador find himself in trouble in the mountains, but until then he will likely be riding in support of his team leader.

Laurens ten Dam and Cadel Evans lost slightly more time on the day, finishing around 2 minutes and 30 seconds behind. Their loss of time was largely overshadowed by the huge loss of time by Andy Schleck. The Radioshack-Leopard rider has never been particularly good in the time trials and today showed that weakness once again. Schleck finished 123rd on the day, over 4 minutes and 30 seconds behind Froome. Schleck's chances for a podium finish in this Tour seem to have flown out the window with today's performance, but his strength in the mountains might yet bring him back into contention for a top finish.

In one of the surprise performances of the day, Michal Kwiatkowski rode himself to a 4th place finish, gaining almost 2 minutes on Nairo Quintana in the process. This result means that he takes a lead in the best young rider classification. It is a slim lead though (just 34 seconds) and Quintana's ability in the high mountains is unquestionable. With a lot of climbing still to get through before this Tour is finished, Quintana will fancy his chances at regaining the white jersey.

More Sprinting?

I feel as though I'm getting a little repetitive when I talk about the flat stages, but that may just be because the flat stages have followed a set pattern. A pattern, I might add, that is not about to stop repeating. Is tomorrow the flattest stage in the Tour this year? It could well be, and that means just one thing - it's a day for the sprinters.

Cavendish must be disappointed with his 3rd place finish on yesterday's stage because a win just never seemed to be on the cards. His lead out didn't come together as he would have liked, and he ended up knocking Tom Veelers off his bicycle in the sprint for the finish. No doubt he will want to silence his critics tomorrow with a well-executed, clean sprint to the line. The green jersey now seems out of his reach, but he will certainly be targeting stage victories whenever possible.

His rivals are not going to make his task easy tomorrow. Greipel still has a chance of winning the green jersey, slim though it may be, and will be desperate to get to the line ahead of all his competitors. After being pipped at the post yesterday, he will probably be in the same mindset as Cavendish. Greipel will probably aim to take control of the peloton early and leave nothing to chance in the final burst.

Somewhat unsung in the last few sprints is Peter Sagan. The green jersey wearer knows that he has a massive lead in that classification, and has seemed to be content with finishing just behind the other sprinters. Tomorrow's stage may give him the chance to set the race for the green jersey to rest, and a stage win will almost certainly secure his green jersey in Paris.

A Return to the Flats

Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois - Saint-Malo

Today's stage was a welcome return to the flat roads for the riders and, in particular, the sprinters. A breakaway of five riders led for most of the stage, but they were caught with just under 6 kilometres to go to the finish by a peloton driven by the sprinters' teams, and rather surprisingly Saxo-Tinkoff. It was all to set up the bunch sprint to the finish line, and Marcel Kittel made full advantage of that to sprint clear and earn himself another stage win.

It was a sprint to the finish that was set up by Andre Greipel's team Lotto-Belisol. Greipel's lead out man, Greg Henderson, pulled him towards the line and unleashed him with just over 150 metres to go. However, he seemed to be struggling with the larger chain ring on his bicycle and didn't quite have the pace to take out the win. Kittel had no such problems, and bolted from Greipel's slipstream to take the stage win by a wheel.

His win however, was somewhat marred by his teammate's high speed crash in the last few hundred metres. Tom Veelers had just pulled up after leading Kittel onto Greipel's wheel, and was slipping backwards in the bunch when Mark Cavendish tried to move past him and ended up knocking him off his bike. It was a rather horrible crash; Veelers hit the tarmac very hard and tumbled forward like a ragdoll. He seemed to fall on his shoulder and looked to be in serious trouble as he lay on the road while the peloton passed him by. Thankfully he was able to get himself upright and make his way to the finish line.

Kittel's stage win ahead of Greipel, Cavendish and Sagan (in that order) took vital points away from Greipel and Cavendish in the green jersey classification. Although they both finished ahead of Sagan the points advantage they gained was minimal. Stage finishes like today's only reinforce the idea that it will take a huge mistake from Sagan to allow the other riders to compete for the green jersey. Greipel remains second in the classification, 83 points behind Sagan. Cavendish is third, 103 points behind.

Racing against the clock

Tomorrow's stage is the first of two individual time trials in this year's Tour. It is a very flat race against the clock over 33 kilometres and it presents an opportunity for the time trial specialists to claim a stage victory. Also, the main contenders for the yellow jersey will be given a chance to gain time on or over their competitors.

I love individual time trials, perhaps even more than I love team time trials. They're one of the great displays of individual strength in cycling, right up there with a solo ascent of a hors categorie climb. They have a way of separating the contenders that is unlike anything else in cycling. The separation is as much a separation of physical strength as it is of mental strength, and as such it can truly show who is in contention to win the Tour.

Ton Martin has recovered quite well from his crash on the first stage, and will no doubt be targeting tomorrow for a possible stage win. As the World Time Trial Champion, he enters tomorrow's stage as the favourite to win it. However, the maillot jaune wearer, Chris Froome, could upset Martin's hopes as he has the advantage of starting last on the day, and will know what his target time to beat will be. Froome was the bronze medallist at the Olympics last year, and enters the time trial as one of the favourites. 

For the other contenders in the yellow jersey classification, tomorrow's stage may well be one of damage limitation. Valverde's ability against the clock is not of the same calibre as Froome's and the second placed rider could well drop further behind Froome by the end of the day's racing. Mollema and ten Dam are in a similar position. Contador is a strong time trialist, but it is unlikely that he will make up time on Froome tomorrow. Instead, his aim will most likely be to diminish the gap between him an second place - to put him in a position to challenge Froome in the mountains. The time trial is Andy Schleck's worst discipline (apart from sprinting I would imagine), and he will probably lose large chunks of time over the course of the stage tomorrow. The news is rather better for Cadel Evans who could find himself nearer the top end of the standings tomorrow night. I'm unsure of the ability of Quintana and Kwiatkowski as I haven't seen them ride a time trial, but my gut feeling is that Quintana is going to struggle tomorrow and Kwiatkowski will probably fare somewhat better. Will the difference between the two be enough for the white jersey to change hands? Only time will tell.

A Rest Day Recap

Rest Day: Saint-Nazaire

The Pyrenees are done. The first foray into the mountains is over, and the riders have been given a chance to rest their legs. Over the course of the last 9 days, the race has started to take shape and the contenders have come to the fore. The rest day provides the perfect opportunity to reflect on the race that has been, and speculate on what it may yet hold in store. The race continues tomorrow, but the form it takes is vastly different from that with which it started. What follows is my synopsis of the race by classification:

Green Jersey

Of all the classifications, the green jersey is the one that is closest to being decided. The three hilly days in the race so far have allowed Peter Sagan to open up a points lead of 93 points over the rider in second place, Andre Greipel. Cavendish is further behind in 3rd place, and Kittel has dropped down to 7th in the standings. Overcoming Sagan's lead at this stage is a seemingly impossible task. Greipel is more than two flat-stage victories off the points lead of Sagan; he would need to win two stages in which Sagan didn't score any points to diminish Sagan's lead to 3 points. Greipel is certainly capable of winning two stages, but it would be naive to think that Sagan wouldn't claim points on those stages. The most Greipel can do is lower the gap by small increments - and it appears that there won't be enough time to eat away at Sagan's advantage.

If Greipel's chances of challenging for the green jersey are slim, then it appears that Cavendish's chances might be slimmer still. Greipel has been the most consistent sprinter at the intermediate sprint points, and in a race that requires the riders to accumulate points at every opportunity this could be the difference between winning the jersey or not. Cavendish may be the best finisher in the bunch, but if he finds himself losing ground at the intermediate sprints, then no number of stage victories will help his cause. If I'm being generous I could say that the competition for the geen jersey has been reduced to a three-horse race featuring Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan, but in reality it looks as if this race has been decided already and Sagan's grip on the green jersey is unlikely to slip.

Polka-dot Jersey

In the King of the Mountains classification, the race is somewhat more open. There are enough points on offer in the mountains ahead to allow a rider without any points at the moment to come into contention for the polka-dot jersey. That, of course, is unlikely to happen and as it stands, Pierre Rolland is the favourite to win the jersey. His contenders in the standings haven't really shown themselves, and those who are closest to him on points are only there because they are chasing the yellow jersey. Froome is second in the classification, but won't be aiming to take points as his goal is only to put time between him and his opponents. In doing that he will undoubtedly earn himself a few more points in the classification, but they will be incidental and not his main focus. 

Richie Porte is third in the race for the polka-dot jersey and still could pose a threat to Rolland. However, Porte will be riding in support of Froome and certainly won't be allowed to go in search of points. He could be sent up the road as a strategy from Froome, but I have a hard time seeing that happen as it would mean leaving Froome's side and not pacing him up the climbs. It seems unreasonable to think of Porte as a contender for the polka-dot jersey, but stranger things have happened in the Tour. Nairo Quintana is another rider in contention for the polka-dot jersey but, like Porte, he will be riding in support of his team leader and most likely won't have the freedom to go in search of points.

Thomas de Gendt and Simon Clarke are further down in the standings, but they might very well pose the biggest threat to Rolland. They've shown fairly good form in the mountains and are agressive riders who can survive on their own in the tough stages. De Gendt has said that he's eyeing the double ascent of the Alpe d'Huez for a possible stage victory and if he does go for it he could be in contention for the polka-dot jersey. Clarke clearly wants to accumulate points in this classification as he has shown on a few occasions and could well do so. Whether or not he can outclimb Rolland is another question, one that can only be answered by a straight battle to the summit. Romain Bardet could be a bit of a surprise entrant to the race for this jersey. I wouldn't be surprised if the young French rider looks to get aggressive in the mountain stages and assault the lead of his compatriot.

White Jersey

The race for the white jersey has essentially been reduced to a battle between 4 young riders: Quintana, Kwiatkowski, Bardet, and Talansky. These riders are placed highly in the overall standings, and could all conceivably be the wearer of the white jersey into Paris. Thibaut Pino is 5th in this classification, but at nearly half an hour behind Quintana, he is unlikely to challenge for the jersey.

This Tour has announced the presence of Nairo Quintana as a serious contender for the future. His attack on stage 8 was reminiscent of a young Alberto Contador ascending the Plateau-de-Beille in 2007. Just as Contador's ride in 2007 announced his presence as a future champion cyclist, the ride from Quintana marked his ascension to the top ranks of competitive cycling. Quintana's strength in the mountains makes him a difficult rider to overcome in this classification, but Michal Kwiatkowski (his closest competitor), has shown that he could very well be up to the challenge.

Although Kwiatkowski lost time to Quintana on stage 8, he showed his strength the very next day by finishing third on the stage and with the group containing the contenders for the yellow jersey. Kwiatkowski has been a strong rider for his team leader, Cavendish, but now that the mountains have rolled around his role has shifted to looking for possible stage victories, and perhaps even a top 10 finish. For a team that is not regarded as having a contender for the general classification, Quickstep must be delighted at the strength that Kwiatkowski is showing.

Bardet and Talansky are further behind Quintana and will probably end up lower down in the standings, but Quintana's work for Valverde could count against him and aggressive riding from either of these two young riders could be richly rewarded should Quintana crack.

Yellow Jersey

Team Sky's dominance on stage 8 seemed to have marked the start of what would be two weeks of utter dominance in the Tour. Froome was launched into the yellow jersey by his teammate, Porte, and the race appeared to be firmly in his grasp. However, any thought that Sky would ride away with the Tour this year was soon shattered as yesterday's trip through the mountains announced the presence of Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff as serious contenders for control of the race. Valverde's team subjected Sky to some of their treatment, and reminded the peloton that the Tour cannot be won with only one strong performance.

Froome met the challenge, and still holds a lead of 1 minute and 25 seconds over Valverde, but the race for the yellow jersey is far from over. The weakness shown by Sky on yesterday's course will no doubt open the floodgates for attacks in the mountains later in the Tour. Although Froome was able to meet the challenge on his own yesterday, he will be hard pressed to do so repeatedly in the very tough passage through the Alps. He will definitely need the support of his team, and Richie Porte's role in defending Froome's yellow jersey will be vital.

Similarly Quintana will have a major role to play in trying to get Valverde into the yellow jersey. Quintana's attacks on the yellow jersey will have to be relentless, and Valverde will have to choose his moment to attack wisely if he wants to win this Tour. Movistar will have to coordinate their moves well, and a flurry of attacks from Quintana could set Valverde up to ride clear of Froome and into yellow.

In a rather unsung effort, the teammates from team Belkin, Bauke Mollema and Laurens ten Dam, have ridden themselves into 3rd and 4th in the overall standings respectively. They have been working very well together and their teamwork has paid dividends. Riding in mutual support of each other, they have proven to be very difficult to crack. However, if either of them wants to find himself in yellow in Paris they'll have to do some attacking of their own. By using the work of Movistar or Saxo-Tinkoff as a platform to launch from, they could upset the hopes of the other yellow jersey contenders. It's difficult to pick between the two riders, as they've both shown solid form in the mountains, but a joint attack wouldn't be too surprising.

Another team duo that is a major threat to the yellow jersey lead of Chris Froome is that of Roman Kreuziger and Alberto Contador. Although Contador is almost two minutes in arrears, his aggressive style of riding and his strength in the mountains means he is definitely still in contention for the maillot jaune. Having a strong rider like Roman Kreuziger in support (or in the wings to take over the team leadership) will only help Saxo-Tinkoff's cause.

Another chance for the sprinters

The race moves away from the Pyrenees tomorrow on a flat stage that will give the riders a chance to warm back up to the race pace. Chris Froome's yellow jersey and the polka-dot jersey of Pierre Rolland won't be under threat as there are no mountains on which to launch an assault. It is another stage for the sprinters to gain points in the green jersey classification.

It's a stage that is almost certain to come down to a sprint finish, and the winner of the stage will likely be the sprinter who managed his effort best in the mountains. Greipel and Cavendish will be desperate to take a win tomorrow, as a loss to Sagan will surely be the final nail in the coffin of their chances. As they are both quite reliant on a good lead out, I expect that the final few kilometres will be categorised by some intense, high-speed jostling for position. Overall contenders will have to be wary of crashes, but barring something drastic happening, the riders who led the classifications after yesterday's stage will lead after tomorrow's stage.

Laying Down the Gauntlet

Stage 9: Saint-Girons - Bagneres-de-Bigorre

If yesterday was the day for Team Sky, then today was the day for team Movistar, and their leader Alejandro Valverde. The grueling stage in the Pyrenees that saw the peloton ride over 5 cols, 4 of which were category 1 climbs. After the dominance of Team Sky yesterday, the riders from Movistar were keen to prove a point: that they are capable of challenging for the yellow jersey, and they are capable of cracking team Sky.

From the outset, team Movistar made their intentions clear. They moved to the front of the peloton as the race reached the base of the first, and easiest (category 2 Col de Portet d'Aspet), climb of the day and immediately increased the pace. The results were immediate - the peloton started to disintegrate and before long the only Team Sky riders remaining in the bunch were Richie Porte and Chris Froome. It was clear that the effort exerted by Team Sky yesterday had taken its toll on the team, and Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff were prepared to capitalise on their weakened state.

The hard pace was maintained, and those riders who were dropped were given no chance to rejoin the peloton on the descent to the base of the first of four category 1 climbs on the day, the Col de Mente. When the peloton reached the base of the climb the pace was once again set at a hard tempo by the riders from Movistar. Their efforts again produced results, and on the early slopes of the climb they claimed their first scalp of the day - Richie Porte. Porte's hard ride yesterday had clearly taken its toll and he cracked on the slopes of the Col, leaving Chris Froome isolated from his teammates and surrounded by riders from Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff. Froome would remain without any team support for the rest of the day's racing. Porte lost out the most on today's stage, and despite a valiant attempt at a comeback on the Col de Val Louron-Azet, he found himself losing over 17 minutes to the yellow jersey at the end of the stage. 

While the peloton's pace was being set by Movistar, Pierre Rolland was ahead on the road and was accumulating points in the King of the Mountains classification. No response came from Nairo Quintana, who was riding in support of his team leader, Alejandro Valverde. By the end of the day, Rolland had reclaimed the polka-dot jersey from Chris Froome and had put himself in a somewhat comfortable lead. Rolland is no longer a contender in the general classification, as he is over 12 minutes behind the yellow jersey, but his efforts in the mountains have made it clear that he is targeting the polka-dot jersey. His main opponents appear to be Quintana and Simon Clarke. Quintana's position in the overall standings makes him a marked man, and he will struggle to go for points on the climbs because attacking will result in a response from Team Sky. Clarke will be allowed to ride away from the peloton because he is no threat to the yellow jersey, but doing so will certainly result in a response from Rolland.

However, Rolland's breakaway was caught by the peloton on the base of the final climb, making the yellow jersey group the leaders on the road for the first time in the stage. Movistar were well and truly in control of the peloton and were driving the pace hard. More and more riders dropped off the back until the group was whittled down to just twenty of the strongest riders in the Tour. Froome, however, was still riding well near the front of the group and so the attacks from Movistar started to come. Quintana was the designated aggressor and he attacked repeatedly on the way up to the summit, each time being reeled in by Froome, only to attack again. With about 3 kilometres to go to the summit the attacks ceased. It was a show of respect to Froome for being able to withstand the pace set by Movistar without assistance from his teammates, and simultaneously a realisation that today would not be the day for Valverde to claim yellow.

The slight lifting of the pace presented a chance for a rider to escape from the group and try to get himself a stage win. The chance was seized by Dan Martin, who leapt clear of the peloton and started his bid for the stage win. He was joined moments later by Jakob Fuglsang, who also attacked the peloton to try for a stage win. Their attacks defined the last 30 kilometres of the race as they rode clear of the peloton and held a lead of 30 seconds all the way to the finish line. The peloton set up to chase them to the finish, but their efforts were unable to diminish the gap on the long descent to the finish line. Martin and Fuglsang were left to fight for the stage win, with some clever positioning and a well timed sprint, Martin was able to get ahead of Fuglsang and claim the stage win. His tactical cycling allowed the chasing peloton to diminish the gap by ten seconds in the final kilometre, but the two rider's lead was never threatened, and a stage win was assured.

With Porte dropped and a long way behind, Alejandro Valverde moved himself up to second place in the overall standings. It was a superb ride from Movistar's leader, and indeed a superb ride from the team. Their control of the peloton on today's stage was a signal to the other contenders for the maillot jaune. It showed that they are strong enough to fight against the other teams and put pressure on the contenders for the yellow jersey; pressure that could well see Valverde claim the maillot jaune if the other contenders aren't careful. The strong ride from Valverde was echoed by Contador, Mollema and ten Dam - who all found themselves moving up in the overall standings as a result of Porte's loss of time.

Perhaps one of the strongest performances of the day came from the wearer of the maillot jaune himself. Chris Froome had to cycle without assistance from his team for nearly 130 kilometres and, despite the onslaught from Movistar, he never faltered. Froome was a match for Valverde's challenge today and he showed why he is one of the favourites to win this year's Tour. The efforts of Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff couldn't dislodge the leader of the Tour from the peloton, and at the end of the stage his advantage over Valverde was unchanged. It was, however, a stark reminder that the Tour de France simply cannot be won in the first week of racing. The race is not over until the riders complete their final lap of the Champs Elysees, and complacency will be punished. Froome will have to be vigilant if he wants to retain his yellow jersey.

A final remark about today's stage deals with the emergence of the new generation of riders in this year's Tour. Quintana has announced his presence with a flourish both yesterday and today, claiming a lead in the young rider's classification. It is hard to see him being knocked off the top spot of this classification, but he will be riding in support of Valverde in the mountains and could bury himself for his team leader - losing a lot of time in the process. If this happens his lead could be under threat from the Polish rider, Michal Kwiatkowski, who is currently second in the race for the white jersey. Kwiatkowski had a strong day in the mountains today, and finished in the yellow jersey group with Quintana. Romain Bardet was the most aggressive rider on today's stage, and the young rider from France showed that he will be a force to reckon with in the mountains in future Tours. Tejay van Garderen had a tough day in the Tour and ended up losing a lot of time, but he remains a great prospect for the future. His compatriot from America, Andrew Talansky, had a better day in the Tour, and despite being dropped on the last climb he showed that he is developing into a very good cyclist. 

A rest day tomorrow...

The Tour's first rest day gives me a chance to rest my fingers for a little while. I won't be writing my predictions for the next day of racing now, and will instead write that up tomorrow night. It has been a crazy start to the Tour and a crazy start to this blog. It's tested my resolve at points, but I can now say that I'm fully committed to producing a post every day of the Tour (even rest days as it turns out). This project has given me a great chance to engage more deeply with the Tour, and I'm finding it more and more exciting and enjoyable as the race goes on. I'll check in tomorrow with my preview of the next day's racing. Cheers.

The First Showdown puts Froome in Yellow

Stage 8: Castres - Ax-3-Domaines

The first stage in the mountains had always promised to test the legs of the main contenders for the yellow jersey, and when the peloton rode onto the slopes of the massive Col de Pailheres, the Pyrenees delivered. 

A breakaway of four riders led the race at the base of the Col de Pailheres, the hors categorie climb up to the highest point of this year's Tour. Their lead was tenuous, and Christophe Riblon decided to attack the lead group and try to ride clear to the summit. It was a strong move that left the other three riders in his wake and threatened, if only for a few short moments, to steal the show away from the main contenders.

With Riblon the lone leader, and team Sky in control of the peloton the attacks from hopeful stage winners started to come. Thomas Voeckler jumped clear moments after an attack from Robert Gesink, but both of their efforts failed when Movistar rider, the Colombian Nairo Quintana, bolted clear of the peloton and started a ride that would move him into contention for the high placings in the overall classification. It was a ride that put him in the lead in the white jersey classification at the end of the stage, and saw him claim the Henri Desgrange prize for leading the race over the summit of the highest mountain in the Tour.

Quintana's attack put pressure on Team Sky to respond, and they did so in their typical, stoic fashion. Sky moved all of their riders to the front of the peloton and started to turn the pace up. The increase in the pace started putting the peloton under pressure, and riders were dropped off the back one by one. The yellow jersey wearer, Daryl Impey, was expected to crack early on, but rode close to the front of the peloton and resisted for some time. When Impey was eventually dropped, the pace of the peloton had already claimed the scalps of some of the well known riders in the Tour. Ryder Hesjedal, Rein Taaramae, Sylvain Chavanel and Wouter Poels had all been cracked under the pressure of the Sky-led peloton and Andreas Kloden would also succumb to the pressure on the later slopes.

Quintana led the race over the summit of the Col de Pailheres by a minute, but some rapid descending from the peloton and some misjudged corners by Quintana meant that the gap had been diminished to just 40 seconds at the base of the final climb. At that point the pressure was growing and it seemed that Quintana's breakaway was set to come to an end before the end of the stage. And come to an end it did, but only after he had ridden himself clear of the other young riders and into a lead in that classification. Quintana's ride today signalled that he will be a force to contend with in the high mountains of the Tour, and he could well find himself in the top 10 when the race reaches Paris.

In the peloton, the work from Peter Kennaugh was done and Richie Porte moved to the front of the Sky train. What followed was a decimation of the main field. Porte cranked the pace up and the peloton disintegrated. Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck cracked and dropped from the group and, one by one, the riders fell away. When what was left of the peloton got their first glimpse of Quintana up the road, there were just five riders left chasing him. Porte had dropped everyone but Froome, Contador, Roman Kreuziger, and Alejandro Valverde. It was a glimpse of the real contenders for this year's yellow jersey.

As soon as Quintana was absorbed by the group of five, Froome went on the attack. It was an attack that was perfectly set up by his team, a planned bid for the yellow jersey. It was executed without a hitch and Froome rode clear of his competitors with 6 kilometres left in the stage. Froome charged up the climb, putting time and distance between him and his closest rivals. He was staking his claim on this year's Tour, and his rivals had no answer.

Behind him, Richie Porte was turning the stage into one to be remembered for Team Sky. The pace had proved too much for Contador, Valverde and Kreuziger, and Porte seized his opportunity to ride clear of them. Froome was up ahead, riding to a stage victory and Porte was behind him making it a one-two finish for Team Sky on the day (and claiming positions one and two in the general classification). At the end of the stage, Froome had claimed the yellow jersey - leading Porte by 51 seconds. Valverde is in third place overall, 1 minute and 25 seconds behind Froome. Bauke Mollema and his teammate Laurens ten Dam are in 4th and 5th overall, just under 2 minutes back. Contador and Kreuziger are 6th and 7th in the general classification, also just under 2 minutes behind. Schleck and Evans lost out the most of all the overall contenders, losing almost four minutes on the final climb.

The Pyrenees continue

The race only spends two days in the Pyrenees this year, but they are two of the toughest days of racing the peloton will encounters. Today's stage saw the peloton summit the highest peak in the Tour before heading up the difficult category 1 climb to the finish. Tomorrow's stage features 5 cols over 168 kilometres. The riders will be given no chance to rest, as the climbs seem to get harder and harder as the day progresses. The category 2 Col de Portet d'Aspet starts the day off before the peloton is made to made to tackle four category 1 climbs before reaching the finish line, one of which is the legendary Col de Peyresourde.

It seems pointless to predict what will happen on the road tomorrow, because so much of the race tomorrow will depend on how well the overall contenders recover tonight. Froome should be content to defend his yellow jersey tomorrow. He won't need to go on the attack, and will probably only attack if he feels that Valverde or Contador is hurting. No doubt Sky will set a tough pace on the climbs to prevent the other riders from jumping clear and trying to put time into Froome's lead. This pace will definitely put the other riders under pressure and will certainly result in the peloton's shrinking as riders fall away. If Schleck and Evans are having a tough time, as it appeared they were today, then they very well may lose more time.

Quintana is in a prime position to take the lead in the King of the Mountains classification, but he will be watched closely by Pierre Rolland. Also, his high position in the overall standings means any move he makes will be watched closely and countered by Team Sky. Furthermore, a move from Quintana could put pressure on his team leader, Valverde, as an increase in the race pace could see him in trouble of being dropped by the leaders as he was today. Rolland is further back in the overall classification, but any move from him should spur a move from Quintana, and then the peloton. 

While the actual happenings of the stage tomorrow are uncertain, the one thing that is certain is that the peloton will be reduced once more to only the strongest riders and the favourites for the yellow jersey by the end of the day's racing. After tomorrow's stage, the top 10 could already be taking shape and the names at the top of the general classification could be very close to being decided.

A Tough Transition

Stage 7: Montpellier - Albi

A last chance for the sprinters to claim points before going into the high mountains of the Pyrenees presented itself to the riders on today's stage. It was also a last chance for Peter Sagan to claim his first stage win of this year's tour before having to resign himself to the autobus for the passage through the mountains. It was clear from the outset that Sagan was desperate for a stage win, and the work of his team - Cannondale - on the front of the peloton left no doubt that he was targeting the victory. It was an impressive team performance that ultimately gave Sagan the stage win, and placed him in a commanding lead in the green jersey classification.

Team Cannondale hammered the first nail into the coffin of Sagan's competitors when the peloton reached the hardest climb of the day, the Col de la Croix de Mounis, with just over 100 kilometres to go to the finish. At the base of the climb, Cannondale moved to the front of the peloton and set a pace that would see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel drop from the peloton. The response from their teams was immediate, as they sent riders back to try to pace them back into the peloton. However, by the time the autobus reached the summit they were over 2 minutes behind the peloton, and despite their best efforts the gap would be maintained until the finish.

With none of his main contenders present, Sagan was easily able to claim maximum points at the intermediate sprint point. Shortly after passing through the sprint point, Cannondale was forced to come to the front once more, when Jan Bakelants attacked and brought Cyril Gautier and Juan Jose Oroz with him. It was a breakaway that would fight the peloton for nearly 50 kilometres, holding a lead that seemed to oscillate around the 30 second mark. They were caught with just 3 kilometres to go, and team Cannondale launched Sagan into the final sprint. John Degenkolb was Sagan's main competitor, but he launched his attack too early and Sagan was able to jump out of his slipstream to take the victory. The win meant Sagan claimed maximum points on the day, and is now in a seemingly unassailable lead in the green jersey classification - almost 100 points clear of Andre Greipel.

It was a good day for the french rider, Blel Kadri. Riding to his hometown in Albi must have provided him with some inspiration as he rode in a two-man breakaway with Jens Voigt and claimed enough points in the King of the Mountains classification to earn himself the polka-dot jersey at the end of the day. The response from Pierre Rolland came too late and was defended by Kadri's teammate at the top of the Col de la Croix de Mounis. Kadri moved up from third in this classification to claim a one-point lead over Rolland at the end of the day.

The yellow jersey was successfully defended by Daryl Impey today, although there were times when the virtual lead had passed to Jan Bakelants. Bakelant's breakaway needed to finish 34 seconds clear of the peloton to give him back the yellow jersey, but it seemed an impossibility with Cannondale on the front of the peloton. The breakaway's lead was finally disintegrated when Orica Greenedge moved up to the front to help with the chase, keeping Impey in yellow.

A first foray into the mountains

The Pyrenees launch the Tour into the mountainous part of the race with a brute of a stage. The 195km route beween Castres and Ax-3-Domaines puts the hilly stages of the past week into sharp perspective. While those days were ruled by the punchers and the bunch sprint, tomorrow's stage will be a first chance for the overall contenders to test their strength. 

The first major climb of the day comes towards the end of the stage - the massive, hors categorie Col de Pailheres. It is on this climb that the peloton will disintegrate, leaving only the strongest riders at the front of the race at the summit. I think it is unlikely that we will see an attack from one of the main contenders for the maillot jaune on the early slopes of this climb, what is more likely will be a general increasing of the pace from their teammates in an attempt to drop those riders who are not feeling as strong. It could be an early exit to the race for the yellow jersey for one or two riders, and could be the source of some surprises. It will be a big test for the likes of Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen, and if they pass that test they could well be placing themselves in a strong position to challenge for a top 10 finish.

The next climb of the day starts immediately after the descent from the Col de Pailheres and it is almost as brutal. The category 1 climb up to Ax-3-Domaines is half the length of the previous climb, but has a steeper average gradient and is the climb to the finish line. If the main contenders want to attack, the base of this climb would probably provide them with the perfect opportunity. If Andy Schleck wants to win the yellow jersey this year, I feel he has to make a move on this climb. He will lose large chunks of time in the time trials to Froome, Contador and Evans, and needs to build a lead from early on if he wants to have any hope of winning the Tour. In 2011, when Evans won the Tour, Schleck left his bid for the yellow jersey much too late in the Tour, and wasn't able to build a large enough buffer between himself and Evans before the time trial. Tomorrow will be his chance to start building that buffer, and if he doesn't do so he'll have a much tougher time doing so later on in the Tour.

Contador will probably be looking at this stage enviously; it's the kind of stage that really suits his aggressive style of riding. If he feels he has the strength in his legs to ride away from his opponents, and his team have done enough work at the front of the peloton on the Col de Pailheres, then he may very well attack near the summit of this climb and try to ride alone to the finish. Contador is a strong descender and should have no difficulty holding or extending a small lead on the way to the base of Ax-3-Domaines.

Froome's job tomorrow is seemingly straightforward. He is the best placed rider of the overall contenders and will claim the yellow jersey if none of his rivals ride away from him. All Froome needs to do to ensure his place in yellow is mark the attacks of the other riders. However, if he takes this approach he is likely to end up with only a very small lead over the next best rider. If Froome wants to stake his claim on the yellow jersey he will have to do more than just watch the moves of his opponents, he'll have to do some attacking of his own. Whatever he chooses to do, one thing is almost certain - the yellow jersey will be changing hands tomorrow. Daryl Impey will not be able to match the pace set by the main contenders up the mountains on tomorrow's stage, and his history-making time in the yellow jersey will come to an end. The high mountains have rolled around, and it is time for the overall contenders to take the stage.