I've been meaning to write a blog about the Tour de France for the past couple of years, but simply never got around to doing it. I liked to blame the event itself, saying that it is too engrossing and exciting to do anything else but sit in awe and spectate, but it is I - not the race - that is to blame. Call it laziness, or perhaps fear, because the reason I never got around to writing a Tour blog is simply because it seemed like a massive task and I was afraid of writing something that could turn out completely wrong (as a person who prides himself on not being wrong about things Tour-related, this is the real reason I held myself back. How could I possibly dangle my predictions out there with the possibility of them being wrong?). But predictions are almost futile in this grand tour of France because the event is, by its nature, unpredictable. Crashes happen, mistakes are made, riders rise and fall on a daily basis. Nevertheless, the fear persisted.
Thankfully, timing and a little bit of bravery intervened and here I am, writing this blog that seems to me to be long overdue. I've been utterly captivated by this beautiful race for about 10 years now, since I first saw Lance Armstrong assert his dominance over the peloton and claim his record-equaling 5th Tour victory. I have watched the Tour religiously ever since. Every year, at this time, I get to watch the three week drama unfold, I get to know the characters and their ambitions. I get to watch dreams fulfilled and hopes shattered on a tumultuous journey through France. I love this race and I want to try and capture a little bit of its essence here, if not for anybody else but myself.
And so it begins...
The hundredth running of the Tour de France served up a plateful of drama on stage one. The Tour traveled, for the first time ever, to the island of Corsica for a flat stage between Porto-Vecchio and Bastia. With no prologue to start the Tour off this year, the first wearer of the coveted maillot jaune would likely be a sprinter. It appeared to be the perfect opportunity for Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan or Andre Greipel to claim and wear the yellow jersey for the first time in their careers. My money was on Cavendish to win a bunch sprint for the finish, but the Tour showed me once again why such predictions can be so easily shattered.
A five-man breakaway led the race for most of the stage, but was comfortably reeled in with about 40 kilometres to go. It was around this time that I heard Phil Liggett mention a bus stuck on the finish line. However, that comment went largely unnoticed as Alberto Contador's team - Team Saxo-Tinkoff - surprisingly moved to the front of the peloton, took control, and increased the pace. It was an early show of strength, only time will tell if it was actually a bluff, that showed that they were here to push the riders on the other teams, and indeed on their own team, to their limits. From the reaction of the peloton it was easy to see what they were trying to do. With the wind picking up, and only 40km to go, they wanted to try to split the peloton and perhaps catch out some of Contador's rivals, chief amongst them Chris Froome and Andy Schleck. It was a bit of a hopeful maneuver, but many tour contenders in the past have been caught out by similar moves and recovering from time lost on the first day can often prove to be an insurmountable task.
With the pace increasing, reactions came from Team Sky, Radioshack and BMC to secure their leaders' positions at the front end of the peloton and show that they were up to the challenge leveled by Saxo-Tinkoff. The peloton became a long train of riders until the calm figure of Jens Voigt appeared at the front of the peloton and brought the pace back under control. This stage was always meant to be one for the sprinters, and so their teams would have to take control if they wanted the win.
And so they did, the teams of Cavendish, Greipel, Sagan and Kittel moved to the front and cranked the pace up, wanting to take control of the peloton and catapult their sprinters into the yellow jersey. And then the bus was mentioned again, still stuck at the finish line. The riders were due to arrive at the finish in about 5 minutes and team Orica Greenedge's bus was stuck under the finishing line's banner. It couldn't move and chaos ensued. The peloton was bearing down on a finish line that had no space for them. Tour officials began to discuss what to do and it was decided that the race would finish at the 3km-to-go point. A snapshot of that point made this seem like an impossibility, directly after the 3km banner the road turned sharply to the left - it could not facilitate a bunch sprint. And still the peloton bore down on the finish. Somehow, with the peloton a mere 6km from the finish, the bus was moved out of the way and the finish line was cleared. This information was relayed to the teams and the finish line was altered once again from the 3km-to-go mark to the actual finish line. And then there was a crash.
Right at the front of the peloton a rider went down. Most of the peloton ground to a halt, and as a small bunch pedaled clear of the wreckage it became apparent that none of the favourites for the stage would be winning. Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan had all be taken out in the crash, along with Alberto Contador and Phillipe Gilbert. With less than a kilometre to go Matt Goss crashed around a bend, leaving Marcel Kittel and JJ Flecha as the only two powerhouse sprinters left in the leading group. After a scrappy lead-out, Kittel jumped from the bunch and snuck his front wheel ahead of that of Alexander Kristoff to claim the stage win, and three jerseys - yellow, green and white.
It was a remarkable start to the 2013 Tour de France. Chaos, crashes and drama. A fitting beginning to a race that has given its spectators plenty of the above throughout its history.
What's in store for us tomorrow?
I've come to the part of my blog that scares me most. What do I think will happen in the next installment of the Tour? Well, the Tour organisers have strayed a little bit from tradition this year, and changed the look of the first week. Generally, the first week is a flat ride to the foothills of the big mountains - the green jersey competition is most contested in this phase of the tour and the overall contenders take a back seat and wait to fight it out in the high mountains.
Tomorrow is a little different. It is not a flat stage, sporting 3 category 3 climbs and one category 2 over 156km. It definitely doesn't appear to suit the sprinters. It doesn't really suit the overall contenders either, as it is too early to make any really aggressive moves on the slopes. The main contenders for the yellow jersey will be watching each other closely, and might throw a few cautious attacks to test the legs of their competitors but I doubt they will attempt anything too drastic. The Tour can't be won tomorrow, but it most certainly can be lost
No, tomorrow is a stage that suits the likes of Philippe Gilbert and Thomas Voeckler. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them trying to get into the breakaway early on (that is if Gilbert is not hurt from his crash today). From the French contingent, Sammy Dumoulin and Jeremy Roy stick out as riders who might like to take a crack at a stage win by jumping into the breakaway. Since it wouldn't really be a breakaway without a rider from Euskaltel-Euskadi, I suspect our polka-dot jersey wearer, Juan Jose Lobato, will find himself in the breakaway, if just to attempt to defend his jersey. Really, tomorrow's stage is one for the riders who are prepared to grab a lead and hold it. The peloton may well chase them down, but it seems unlikely that it will end in a bunch sprint with the main sprinters in contention. However, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Peter Sagan tried to get himself into the breakaway. Out of all the contenders for the green jersey, Sagan is most capable of surviving this stage. If he can get himself into the break, and get the break to the finish then he could very well don the green jersey tomorrow evening.
Who will wear the maillot jaune after tomorrow? Who knows, but it's very likely that it will change hands. Kittel will have a tough time on the climbs tomorrow and may very well relinquish the jersey to a rider from the breakaway. Or if it comes down to a bunch sprint, he may not be there. The climbs in the middle of the stage might cause the creation of the first autobus of this year's Tour, and if it forms, Kittel is likely to be in it.
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